

Today’s expiring July contract traded both sides of unchanged during Tuesday's session. Rising production levels have lent pressure while strong cooling demand has been supportive. July futures settled 5.5 cents lower at $2.756. Aug NG settled settled 3% lower at $2.86.

Cooler adjustments have been made to the forecast for the balance of June across the Midwest and NE. June 2024 however still remains on track to yield a record 306 CDDs for the month, outpacing 2021’s record of 293 CDDs.
Maxar added 20 CDDs to their final outlook for July due more intense heat expected across the Interior West to the Central, South and Mid-Atlantic regions. A total of 410 CDDs are now expected which would rank 4th hottest since 1950.
’s to 100’s while the NW remains below normal.
A 7th straight below normal injection is projected in today’s storage report with stocks expected to rise 51 BCF for the week ended Jun 21. This would undershoot last year’s build by 30 BCF and fall short of the 5 yr avg build by 34 BCF.
Extremely hot temps last week resulted in a 3.8 BCF/day surge in power burn across the Midwest and East Coast. This, along with other small changes, led to a 4 BCF/day increase in total consumption last week. Output and higher imports from Canada helped boost US supply by 1 BCF/day. The supply/demand balance thus tightened 3 BCF/day week over week.
Early estimates for the week in progress suggest an even smaller build with Refinitiv calling for a 41 BCF injection while Platts estimates a 20 to 30 BCF injection.

Prices are currently trading lower ahead of the weekly storage report.

The new front month August 24 natural gas contract settled at 2.745 on Wednesday .117 above the price of the expired July 24 contract creating another open gap on the daily continuation chart.
This gap between 2.645-2.720 is expected to be closed in upcoming trade keeping prices in a corrective downtrend.
40 day moving average support on the daily continuation chart is at 2.605 today followed by 2.520, the 38% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend.
Once support is found, a rally back higher is expected. 10 day moving average resistance which held earlier this week is at 2.805 today followed by 7-month trend line resistance at 2.850.
A breakout above both areas of resistance will turn the 3.159 high set two weeks ago into the next upside objective.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -51.70






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