

Today’s expiring July contract traded both sides of unchanged during Tuesday's session. Rising production levels have lent pressure while strong cooling demand has been supportive. July futures settled 5.5 cents lower at $2.756. Aug NG settled settled 3% lower at $2.86.

The EIA reported a 7th straight lower than normal injection of 52 BCF for the week ended Jun 21. Stocks now stand at 3.097 TCF which is 528 BCF, or 21%, above the 5 yr avg and 314 BCF, or 11%, above last year.
Fundamentals for the week in progress have tightened by about 3 BCF/day, which will result an even smaller build in next week’s report. Platts is estimating an injection in the 20 to 30 BCF range for the week ending June 28. This compares to last year’s build of 76 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 69 BCF.
Power burn has seen a steady decline over the past few days, coming in this morning at 41.6 BCF/day. LNG feedgas demand however has displayed a steady increase, estimated today at 12.8 BCF/day. Total consumption came in below 100 BCF/day yesterday and is estimated today at 98.5 BCF/day.
Near term forecasts showing cooler trends across the Central US could help offset strong cooling demand in the SE and Texas. Additionally, wind generation is expected to pick up, leaving less reliance on nat gas for cooling needs.

Early morning gains today have dried up with prices now trading lower on the day.

The new front month August 24 natural gas contract has rebounded back higher in today’s early trade after losing .060 on Thursday to close the day at 2.685.
The open gap created on the daily continuation chart during the July expiry earlier this week between 2.645-2.720 was partially closed with the August contract trading down to a 2.673 low.
The trend remains sideways to down as the market continues a downside correction following a 7-week rally higher. Once support is found, a rally back higher is expected.
Continuation chart 40 day moving average support is at 2.620 today followed by the 38% retracement of the 2024 uptrend at 2.520. The 200 day moving average is next at 2.470.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.760 today followed by 7-month trend line resistance briefly broken in early -June currently near 2.850. A breakout above both areas of resistance will turn the 3.159 high set two weeks ago into the next upside objective.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -51.21






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