

Spot month gas prices traded mixed during Friday’s session as demand weakness and supply concerns contended with forecasts for stronger heat, particularly across the West. July futures settled 1.5 cents higher at $2.587.

Gas drilling rigs rose by 1 last week to 100 rigs, 37 rigs lower than last year. For the month, gas drilling rigs declined by 5, marking the first time the rig count has fallen for 3 straight months since July 2020.
Much of last week’s price weakness stemmed from a recovery in output following the recent rally and a partial return of curtailed production by EQT. Production trends over the weekend however are proving supportive this morning.
Prices are rebounding sharply this morning as production levels fell to a low of 99 BCF/day on Sunday. Flows to Freeport were reportedly interrupted by an operational issue on Train 2. The big question remains whether production will continue to rebound or remain flat.
LNG exports rebounded in May after Freeport LNG returned to full production on May 10. Gas flows to the 7 major US LNG export plants rose to 12.9 BCF/day, up from April’s 11.9 BCF/day.
LNG feedgas demand has remained at or above 13 BCF/day over the past 5 days and is estimated this morning at 13 BCF/day.

EU gas prices surged more than 13% today to their highest this year following a plunge in Norway’s gas exports. Norway’s offshore Sleipner hub halted operations Sunday following a crack in the pipeline. This hub is a connection point for pipelines connecting the massive Nyhamna plant on Norway’s west coast with the Easington terminal in the UK, an entry point for 1/3 of Britain’s total supply. It is not yet clear how long the repair will take.
This morning’s 6-10 day outlook from Maxar shows extreme heat across the West with more mild temps throughout the Midwest. The 11-15 day period will see a shift with temps turning above normal across the Plains, Midwest and East.

The July 24 natural gas contract closed .016 higher on Friday settling at 2.587 while also closing up on a weekly basis with a .067 (2.6%) gain.
The July contract has broken out above 10 day moving average and 2.709 weekly high resistance in today’s early trade turning the 2.924 high set two weeks ago into the next area of resistance.
Longer term resistance is the 78% retracement of the 2024 downtrend at 2.975 followed by the final 88% retracement at 3.165.
The 10 day moving average is now near term support at 2.645 with longer term support at the 200 day moving average currently at 2.450.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -65.21






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