

July NG reversed Tuesday’s losses during yesterday’s trade with the spot month contract jumping 6.6% higher. Support stemmed from a hotter forecast for the East during the 8-14 day period while production also turned softer. July futures settled 17.1 cents higher at $2.757.

Today’s storage report is expected to continue chipping away at the surplus. Storage levels are projected to rise by 90 BCF in the week ended May 31. The build compares to last year’s injection of 105 BCF and the 5 yr avg injection of 103 BCF. The surplus should continue to narrow throughout June as temps turn warmer, further supporting gas fired power demand while LNG feedgas demand returns following maintenance.
Production has turned from bearish to bullish over the past week. Output has slowed to below to an average of 99.3 BCF/day this month. Levels have come in at or below 99 BCF/day so far this week. As of this morning, Platts estimates output at 98.9 BCF/day. The next 2 weeks should see output average 99.4 BCF/day.

Prices continue to build on yesterday’s gains this morning as weather is forecast to turn hotter across the Midwest and East during the 2nd half of June. Temps are currently running on the warm side of normal from TX to CA which has pushed power burn to strong levels for early June. Injection estimates for the first 2 weeks of June have shrunk given the hotter outlooks.

Over the last three trading days, the July 24 natural gas contract has traded in a 5-6% daily range as price volatility increases ahead of the summer cooling season.
After losing .170 or 6.2% on Tuesday, the July contract reversed back higher on Wednesday gaining .171 (6.6%) to settle at 2.757.
Volume was heavy for a 3rd consecutive day at 201,665 contracts.
2.829 weekly high resistance has been broken in today’s early trade turning the 2.924 high set two weeks ago into the next area of resistance.
10 day moving average support is at 2.635 today with longer term 200 day moving average support at 2.450.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -64.06






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