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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-7-23

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
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Fundamentals & Weather

Prices ended Tuesday’s session slightly higher but remain rangebound given the lack of summer heat and the relentless supply surplus.  In their latest monthly outlook, the EIA lowered its 2023 price forecast by more than 8%, from $2.91 to $2.66.  Prices this summer could however see support from a drop in output and stronger power burn.   Dry gas output and demand are both expected to hit record highs this year of 102.74 BCF/day and 88.64 BCF/day, respectively.

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This week’s storage report covering the week ended June 2 is expected to show a build of 114 BCF which would further widen the surplus.  The estimate compares to last year’s build of 99 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 100 BCF. US demand during the reporting week fell about 300 MMcf/day with lower res/comm and industrial demand offset by higher power burn.  

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Gas prices overseas are seeing some volatility with the TTF benchmark down 13% yesterday after soaring 25% on Monday.  
The July NG contract is on the rebound this morning as weather outlooks are slowly shifting warmer for the 2nd half of June.  The most significant heat will be seen in Texas starting early next week with readings expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s.  Not until the middle of June we will see more widespread heat that should persist heading into July. Weather driven demand will remain moderate this week.  
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We are seeing some tropical activity in the Atlantic however no threats to land are anticipated. 

LNG exports held below 12 BCF/day on Tuesday for a 5th straight day as maintenance continues.  

Dry output this morning is down 0.8 BCF/day at 100.3 BCF/day. Platts estimates output will average 100.7 BCF/day over the next week. 

Technical Analysis
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Natural gas prices are higher in today’s early trade following a sell off attempt on Tuesday which failed to hold.

The July 23 contract sold down to a 2.173 low in Tuesday’s early trade but was able to recover all the early losses by the close as it finished the day at 2.262, up .017.

60-minute continuation chart trend line support which begins at the mid-April 1.946 low continues to hold keeping the market in a sideways range.

Trend line support is near 2.190 today with longer term support at 2.030 and the 1.944 late-March low.

10 day moving average resistance is at 2.315 today followed by the 40 day average at 2.465.

Moving Average Index – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Relative Strength Index - 42.17

Seasonal Prices
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Forward Curve Pricing
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