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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 6-8-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Following Monday’s massive rally, spot month prices closed above $9 for a 2nd straight session but ended slightly lower on the day.  The July contract settled at $9.293, down 2.9 cents.  
The June EIA STEO says higher gas prices are a result of lower than normal stocks, steady LNG export demand and strong power sector demand that has been buoyed by coal limitations. 

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This week’s storage report is expected to reflect higher output and lower res/comm consumption last week. Platts is calling for a build of 96 BCF which would fall short of the 5 yr avg build of 100 BCF. For the week ending June 10, stronger power burns are leading to estimates for a smaller injection of 84 BCF.  The EIA forecasts stocks will be about 9% below the 5 yr avg on Oct 31. 

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Averaging 94.4 BCF/day month to date, dry gas volumes are slowing inching higher.  Platts estimates output at 94.7 BCF/day as of this morning.  The EIA says output will increase the 2nd half of the year with dry production averaging 95.7 BCF/day in June and 97.9 BCF/day over the 2nd half of 2022. 

 

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The latest 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps continuing across the southern 2/3 of the US while also covering much of the north central US.  The NW will average below normal while the NE will average near normal. 
Prices are ticking higher this morning, hovering near 14 yr highs as the US market continues to increase its ties to global gas markets.
Technical Analysis
 
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The July 22 natural gas contract closed .029 lower on Tuesday settling at 9.293 but held on to most of the 9%+ gain made in Monday’s session.

Tuesday’s 9.544 high is near term resistance followed by monthly high resistance from December 2000 at 10.200.

A large gap created on Monday’s open between 8.550-8.730 is a pattern gap which at some point will be closed warning of a possible near term pull back.
 

A third bearish divergence has formed on the short term index, another bearish indicator of an impending correction.

Former weekly high resistance at 9.057 is near term support followed by the 10 day moving average at 8.840.  Longer term support is the bottom of the gap at 8.550.

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index - 63.83

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Forward Curve Pricing
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