

A lower than expected injection along with rising LNG feedgas demand pushed nat gas prices higher on Thursday. The miss in storage expectations is being attributed to the growing influence of solar and wind generation on natural gas power burns along with gas to coal switching. Short covering and less heat expected over the next 2 weeks also contributed to the upside. Aug futures rose 12.3 cents to settle at $3.337.

Coming in 5 BCF lower than expected, a 53 BCF injection was reported for the week ended July 4, leaving total stocks at 3.006 TCF. The build matched the 5 yr avg addition of 53 BCF, leaving the surplus unchanged at 173 BCF while the year over year deficit widened slightly. Supplies this year have risen above 3 TCF at the 5th earliest pace behind 2024, 2020, 2016 and 2012. In each of those years, supplies surpassed 3.9 TCF. Weekly builds above 50 BCF are needed for the next 17 weeks in order to hit 3.9 TCF.
For the week in progress, estimates are calling for a build of 44 BCF which would be larger than both the 5 yr avg and year ago injections of 41 BCF and 18 BCF, respectively.
LNG feedgs demand rose to 16 BCF/day on Thursday as Corpus Christi flows recovered from compressor maintenance lows earlier in the week. Feedgas nominations rebounded to 2.4 BCF/day, up from Monday’s 1.8 BCF/day. Plaquemines feedgas flows remain near 2.7 BCF/day as they continue working towards more on site power generation. LNG feedgas is estimated this morning at 16.3 BCF/day.

Upward momentum continues this morning with the spot month trading about 5 cents higher.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract reversed back higher on Thursday following two days of selling gaining .123 (3.8%) to close the day at 3.337.
The August contract topped out at a 3.398 high on Thursday with a current overnight high of 3.412.
The lower-3.400 area is former double-bottom low support for the August contract broken last week now resistance. It is also 200 day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart at 3.420 and 10 day moving average resistance 3.420 on the August daily chart.
If lower-3.400 resistance holds, prices should turn back down with Wednesday’s 3.149 low being primary support followed by 3.000. Longer term support is the 2.859 April low.
If lower-3.400 resistance is broken, the near term trend will turn back up with the 40 day moving average on the daily continuation chart at 3.505 becoming the next area of resistance.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index 46.29






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