

Following Monday’s selloff of more than 17 cents, spot month gas prices gained 3 cents yesterday to settle at $2.188. The small rebound occurred as production levels dipped while feedgas volumes to Freeport were anticipated to slowly restart this week.

Surging power demand last week likely weighed on injections into storage with estimates suggesting the surplus will narrow by about 20 BCF. Platts is calling for a build of 27 BCF which would undershoot the 5 yr avg build of 49 BCF and last year’s build of 43 BCF. Power burn last week in the NE rose to 47.9 BCF/day, 3.5 BCF/day higher than the previous week.
Power burn has held up this week due to lingering heat however, demand is expected to drop by the end of the week as more normal temps take hold across the central and eastern US.
While Freeport remains a negative factor for the market, we are also seeing reductions at Corpus Christi due to maintenance issues. LNG flows are estimated to fall to 12 week lows today of 10.7 BCF/day. Freeport is estimated to pull in 0.5 BCF/day today, up from yesterday’s 0.4 BCF/day while Corpus Christi was on track to pull in 1.6 BCF/day, same as yesterday but down from the previous 7 day avg of 2.4 BCF/day.

Nat gas is extending losses this morning with the spot month currently down 5%. Conditions will turn cooler over the next few days across the Central US with highs coming in below normal later this week.
Production has fallen off the past 2 days towards 100 BCF/day. It remains to be seen if this is true trend or a short lived decline because of current maintenance.

The August 24 natural gas contract closed .030 higher on Tuesday settling at 2.188 following Monday’s massive sell off which dropped the contract lower by over .170.
Monday’s 2.147 low extending down to 2.120, the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 uptrend, remain primary support.
A close under 2.120 will turn the 78% retracement at 1.850 into the next area of support.
The top of the open gap created on Monday between 2.230-2.310 is primary resistance with daily continuation chart 10 day moving average resistance at 2.290 today.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 35.74






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