

Nat gas prices traded sharply lower Wednesday with the spot month falling toward the $2 level. Unwinding of short positions along with the prolonged outage at Freeport and moderating weather in the central US contributed to the downside. Aug futures settled 15.3 cents, or 7%, lower at $2.035.

Today’s storage report will take into account elevated power burn as well as impacts from Hurricane Beryl and the July 4th holiday. The uncertainty in forecasting demand has led to a broader range of projections. Injection estimates range from 12 to 48 BCF with Reuters expecting a build of 27 BCF for the week ended July 12. This would fall short of the 5 yr avg build of 49 BCF and last year’s build of 43 BCF.
Output started to pullback this week but has firmed back up as of this morning, coming in at 101.5 BCF/day, 0.7 BCF/higher on the day. Production remains a wildcard with sustained upward price momentum dependent on continued production declines or further output cuts. Platts projects output will remain flat over the next 2 weeks.

Freeport LNG has slowly begun to ramp up flows this week as it prepares to restart one of its 3 trains by the end of this week. The terminal was expected to receive about 415 MMcf/day of feed gas yesterday which is about 16% of its capacity. Today, the terminal is expected to receive about 473 MMcf/day of feedgas. Total gas inflows are still down with today’s estimate from Platts at 10.9 BCF/day.
Prices are rebounding this morning ahead of weekly storage data. Weather patterns are mixed with heat continuing to dominate the West while cooler conditions spread across the Midwest, Plains and Mid-Atlantic regions. The East Coast is also expected to cool back to near normal levels.

For a 2nd time this week, the August 24 natural gas contract lost over 7% in a single session. In Monday’s trade, the August contract closed down .171 or 7.3%.
In Wednesday’s session, the August contract was down .153 (7%) closing at 2.035, a 10-week low. Volume was heavy at 212,196 contracts, a 1-month high.
61.8% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend at 2.120 was broken on Wednesday turning the 78% retracement at 1.850 into the next longer term support followed by the final 88% retracement at 1.680.
Former support at 2.120 is now resistance followed by the 10 day moving average at 2.240.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 32.57






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