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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 7-23-2026

Heather Wine
Heather Wine

Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20260723080854-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Aug futures rallied towards the top of their recent trading range on Wednesday with the contract closing up 6 cents at $2.925, erasing early week declines. 

July is on track to rank 5th hottest since 1950 with the Mountain region expected to post its hottest July on record.  While cooler air is forecast to spread across the Midwest and East through the remainder of the month, temps are trending hotter across the West and South. As a result, extreme heat is expected to persist across the western 2/3 of the country over the next 2 weeks while the East remains near to below normal.  CDDs for Aug are still projected at 340 with above normal temps expected in the SW, NW and TX while cooler conditions prevail  across the Midwest and East. 

TS Bertha has tracked across southern Louisiana and is approaching the northern Texas coast.  The system has weakened slightly and is expected to dissipate by tomorrow afternoon.

Source: NOAA

Today’s storage report is expected to show the lowest build of the season as power burn rose to an 11 month higher during the reporting week.  An injection of 35 BCF is expected to the week ended July 17, higher than both last year’s build of 27 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 30 BCF.  If correct, stocks would rise to 3.059 TCF.  

Early estimates for the week in progress range from a build of 19 to 42 BCF with the average estimate at 34 BCF.  This compares to last year’s injection of 44 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 26 BCF.

image 134698Source: StoneX

While TS Bertha storm is not expected to cause widespread disruptions, the biggest risk from Bertha centers on power losses at Freeport LNG and possible compressor outages on electric driven pipelines along the Gulf Coast.

LNG feedgas demand was estimated at 16.8 BCF/d yesterday and is slightly higher this morning at 17.2 BCF/d.

image 134699
Source: StoneX

image-20260723080919-2

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Bullish price action in the natural gas market on Wednesday as the spot August contract gained .060 to close at 2.925, the 1st daily close above 10-day moving average resistance in two weeks.

The August contract has continued higher in today’s early trade as it tests key resistance at the 3.000 area.

The 3.000 area was primary support for five weeks during June.  A breakout above 3.000 would be another bullish signal turning the 40-day moving average at 3.125 extending up to 3.150 into the next upside resistance.

The lower-2.800 area where the August contract bottomed for six consecutive days is primary support.  If broken, 2.690-2.700 and the late-April 2.483 low will become the next areas of support.

A bullish divergence (lower price low, higher index high) has formed on the cal 2027 strip short term index which could indicate a post-summer low is in place.

Moving Average Alignment - Neutral-Bearish

Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish

Short Term Trend Following Index - Bearish

Relative Strength Index –  46.78

image 134697

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 134695

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 134696

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 133845

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 133844

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 134694

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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