

Natural gas prices shot higher Monday on improving export activity and forecasts for stronger cooling demand next month. Marking the 3rd straight advance, August futures settled 12.3 cents higher Monday at $ 2.251.

Feedgas flows to Freeport are said to be running at about 13% of capacity, indicating only 1 train is likely back online. Given the extended outage, it remains unclear when all 3 trains will be back up.
Early feedgas demand estimates are coming in this morning 0.5 BCF/day higher at 12.1 BCF/day. The increase is stemming from completed maintenance on Corpus Christi LNG.
Prices are moving lower this morning as production levels trend higher. Platts estimates output this morning at 102.2 BCF/day. Output levels have also revised higher for both last Friday and Monday. Imports from Canada are have also risen above 6 BCF/day.

Weather models this morning show minor hotter changes versus yesterday’s outlook. Demand is expected to maintain mostly moderate levels over the next 5 days as much of the eastern US averages normal to below normal. Demand levels will push higher during the 8-14 day period as widespread above normal temps are expected late July into the first half of August.
The Aug contract is currently trading 6 cents lower.

The spot August 24 natural gas contract continued higher on Monday following Friday’s late day rally gaining .123 (5.8%) to close the day at 2.251.
The August contract also closed above the 10 day moving average for the first time in five weeks on moderate volume of 148,699 contracts.
It is still too early to tell if a low has formed in the market following a 6-week sell off. 60 minute chart trend following indicators which were in the oversold area last week reached the area considered overbought in Monday’s trade.
The 10 day moving average is the first area of support today at 2.200 with longer term support at last week’s 2.015 low. If 2.015 support is broken, the 78% retracement support of the 2024 uptrend at 1.850 will become the next area of support.
Former 50% retracement support at 2.320 is now primary resistance above Monday’s 2.270 high.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -41.46






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