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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 7-27-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles

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Fundamentals & weather

Prices traded higher for a 3rd straight session yesterday as hot weather continued to elevate demand while concern over Russian gas flows to Europe, record coal prices and expiration all lent further support. Today’s expiring Aug futures contract settled 26.6 cents higher Tuesday at $8.993.  Prices have now risen more than $1 since Jul 21 and have climbed 66% so far this month. 

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Strong gas fired power demand outpaced supply growth last week, resulting in expectations for a smaller than normal injection for the week ended Jul 22. Platts is calling for a build of 25 BCF while Reuters is projecting a build of 30 BCF.  Both estimates are lower than last year’s build of 38 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 32 BCF.  

 

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While the last 2 weeks of July typically see the strongest gas fired power demand of the summer, weather forecasts suggest elevated power demand could continue well into August this year.  

Supply/demand fundamentals for the week in progress suggest a net injection of 24 BCF.  

 

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Technical Analysis
 
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A near term and possibly longer term top may be in place for the natural gas market in Tuesday’s trade as today’s expiring August 22 natural gas contract spiked up to a 9.752 high in early trade.

The 9.752 high exceeded the previous high of 9.645 set in early-June but is close enough to qualify as a double top reversal.  

The early rally failed to hold as the August contract pulled back into the close to settle the day at 8.993.

The August contract is up over 80% from the low set three weeks ago with expiration today.  It could be another volatile session.

Technical Indicators: 

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish

Relative Strength Index – 63.84

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Forward Curve Pricing
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