

Spot month gas prices erased early gains on Thursday with the market pressured by a larger than expected storage build. Early support stemmed from signs Golden Pass LNG could start up earlier than projected. Golden Pass asked the USDA for permission to bring import cargoes to the facility as early as Oct 1 for commissioning activities and startup of its Train 1. Aug futures settled Thursday’s session 7.9 cents lower at $3.409.

The EIA reported a 55 BCF injection for the week ended June 27, outpacing last year’s build of 35 BCF but below the 5 yr avg injection for the first time since early April. The 5 yr avg surplus narrowed to 173 BCF while the year over year deficit narrowed to 176 BCF with total stocks at 2.953 TCF. Strong solar generation and gas to coal switching helped limit gas demand last week.
Early estimates for this week’s report suggest a build of 58 BCF. Eighteen weeks remain in injection season with stocks projected to reach 3.9 TCF by the end of Oct.
EU gas prices are following the trend of the US gas market. Strong Norwegian supplies with output there back to normal along with expectations for low wind generation should keep EU prices relatively stable. Tariff uncertainty may impact global markets in the weeks ahead.

Nat gas is extending the downside this morning in the midst of record high production and conflicting weather forecasts.
The Weather Desk forecast has trended cooler for the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic during the coming 6-10 day period while the NWS is forecasting nearly the entire country to average above normal over the next 2 weeks.
Technical Analysis

The August 25 natural gas contract gapped lower in Friday and today’s combined session.
After closing Thursday’s session at 3.409, the August contract opened Friday at 3.346 and is currently trading near 3.320 in today’s early trade.
The overnight gap dropped the August contract under daily continuation chart 200 day moving average support at 3.410 today turning last week’s 3.293 low into the next area of support.
Longer term support is the 3.199 late-June low followed by the 2.859 April low.
The top of the overnight gap at 3.400 which coincides with the 200 day moving average at 3.410 is near term resistance.
Trend following indicators remain mixed but momentum is turning bearish.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index - 44.02






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