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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 8-19-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Sep futures traded higher immediately following yesterday’s storage report but upward momentum failed to hold.  Prices were trading nearly 30 cents lower by midday before bouncing back up.  Spot month prices settled 5.6 cents lower on the day at $9.188 as output was on track for a record high month.  

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Coming in well below market expectations and historical comparisons, storage levels rose by 18 BCF during the week ended Aug 12.  Stocks now stand at 2.519 TCF, widening the 5 yr avg deficit to 367 BCF and the year over year deficit to 296 BCF.  The South Central and Pacific regions saw net withdrawals for the week amid stronger than normal gas fired power demand.  

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Cooler temps this week across the NE and Midwest are leading to expectations for a larger injection next week of around 55 BCF. This would be larger than both the 5 yr avg of 46 BCF and last year’s build of 32 BCF. 

The forecast for the coming 1-15 day period calls for 157.4 CDDs, ranking 13th highest for Aug19-Sep 2.  

 

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Total demand is down 2 BCF this morning at 92.3 BCF/day led almost entirely by power burn which is down 2.1 BCF at 39.9 BCF/day.  Output is coming in up 0.2 BCF/day at 95.9 BCF/day.  
Month to date, output is averaging 95.6 BCF/day, 2.6 BCF/day higher than last year. 
Technical Analysis
 
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The September 22 natural gas contract spiked up to a 9.663 high on Thursday, .014 lower than the high set the previous day.

With resistance holding, prices pulled back into the close with the September contract ending the day .056 lower closing at 9.188.

A new contract high was set this week but 10.000 continues to be a strong area of resistance over the past 4 months.

The October 2000 monthly high at 10.200 is the next area of resistance followed by the 100% Fibonacci extension from the December 2021 low at 11.390. 

10 day moving average support is at 8.690 today.  Trend following indicators are all in a bullish alignment.

Technical Indicators:  

Moving Average Alignment – Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Relative Strength Index – 61.97

Foward Strip and Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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