

Widespread heat caused prices to advance early Friday but gains failed to hold. Spot month NG settled about unchanged after trading in a 10 cent range as strong cooling demand was met with rising output. The Sep contract settled 0.1 cent lower at $1.967. Nat gas prices have now closed lower in 7 of the past 8 weeks.

Output rose last Wednesday to its highest level in 5 months of 103.3 BCF/day. Production declined in the days following, coming in at an estimated 102.3 BCF/day on Friday. Platts estimates output as of today at 103.1 BCF/day. Output is expected to remain steady over the next week.
With Freeport LNG receiving about 2.2 BCF/day of feedgas on Friday, total feedgas demand rose more than 1 BCF/day to 13.2 BCF/day. Feedgas remained about steady over the weekend and is estimated this morning at 13.1 BCF/day.
Res/comm demand saw a 3.5 BCF/day decline on Friday to 7.2 BCF/day while power burn sank 0.8 BCF/day to 53.2 BCF. Power burn continued to decline over the weekend and is estimated this morning at 50.6 BCF/day.

News on Friday also included ExxonMobil pushing back the timeline for the startup of Golden Pass LNG to late 2025, a delay of about 6 months. The setbacks indicate a tighter global supply picture next year than previously expected. Additionally, New Fortress Energy expects to load its first LNG cargo from its Altamira export terminal on Aug 9. After the first export departs, the facility will go offline for several days for scheduled maintenance.
Prices are lower this morning after Hurricane Debby made landfall in western Florida early this morning. Debby is threatening to cause widespread demand destruction with major flooding and power outages expected.
Weather forecasts trended cooler over the weekend resulting in a net loss of 7.3 CDDs during the coming 6-10 day period.

The spot natural gas contract, currently September 24, has closed down 7 out of the past 8 weeks settling Friday at 1.968. For the week, the September contract was down .084.
Prices are down 3.75% in today’s early trade as the September contract tests 1.850 support. This is the area the expired August 24 spiked down to last week. 1.850 is also the 78% retracement of the 2024 uptrend.
If 1.850 support is reached and broken, the final 88% retracement at 1.680 will become the next downside objective.
10 day moving average resistance is at 2.025 today followed by last week’s 2.149 high.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral- Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bearish
Relative Strength Index -36.02






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