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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-10-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250910071926-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

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Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

The spot month gas contract held onto gains yesterday on stronger demand expectations.  The Oct contract settled 2.7 cents higher at $3.117.

Forecasts trended warmer overnight for the Midwest and East with above and much above normal temps favoring the Plains and Midwest.  Highs will reach into the 80s and 90s.  The extent of the warmth along the East will remain limited by high pressure moving southward from Canada, keeping temps closer to normal along the East Coast. Above normal temps are still expected to be widespread during the 11-15 day period with the exception of the Rockies.

image 119168

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Another bearish storage injection is expected tomorrow as  last week’s mild weather suppressed demand. Platts is forecasting a build of 69 BCF which would be the largest addition since late June.  he number compares to last year’s build of 36 BCF and the 5 yr avg build of 56 BCF.

Looking ahead to the week in progress, early projections point to a similar, if not larger, addition. Estimates currently call for a build near 80 BCF, which would exceed the 5 yr avg build of 74 BCF.  

image 119169

Source: Bloomberg

LNG feedgas flows remain below record levels reached earlier this year, falling to a 2 week low of 14.8 BCF/day this morning. Month to date volumes are averaging 15.6 BCF/day, still 2.3 BCF/day higher than last year.    

Recent optimism in the market has been fueled by expectations for a significant ramp up in US LNG feedgas demand.  According the EIA, LNG exports could be the largest source of demand growth for domestic nat gas given new and expanding export terminal projects. Phase 2 of Plaquemines is set to come online by the end of 2025.  Golden Pass is also expected to come online by the end of 2026 which, combined, will increase LNG export capacity by 6 BCF/day from the end of 2024.  

image 119170

Source: Bloomberg

Today marks the peak of hurricane season, yet the tropics remain quiet with no activity expected this week.  This is the first time in a decade without any tropical activity during the peak of hurricane season. Water temps in the Gulf however are conducive for activity.

Prices are currently trading lower on the day given the decline in feedgas demand.

Technical Analysis

image-20250910072108-3

Source: Bloomberg, CME

The October 25 natural gas contract closed .027 higher on Tuesday settling at 3.117 but for a 2nd day failed to clear 3.140-3.150 resistance.

Since breaking out above 40 day moving average resistance on the daily continuation chart last Friday, there has been a noticeable lack of follow through buying which makes the breakout suspect.

The 10 and 40 day moving averages have converged at 3.020-3.025 today and are primary support.
 

A close under 3.020 will renew the bearish downtrend turning the 2.738 contract low for the October contract into the next longer term support followed by 2.622, a spot contract low set three weeks ago.

A breakout above 3.140-3.135 and Monday’s 3.198 spike high would be a bullish technical signal turning 3.290-3.310 into the next upside objective.

Moving Average Alignment – Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 48.48

image 119174

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119173

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119172

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 118878

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 118877

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 119171

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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