

Cautious price action was seen early yesterday as Hurricane Francine caused power outages, cooler temperatures and interrupted LNG activity. A supportive storage report however ultimately led natural gas prices higher. Further support stemmed from hindered production. Oct futures settled 8.7 cents higher on the day at $2.357.

The EIA revealed yet another bullish storage print for the week ended Sep 6 of 40 BCF. The injection was 8 BCF below market expectations and 17 BCF lower than the 5 yr avg. Total gas in storage now stands at 3.387 TCF, 198 BCF, or 6.2%, lower than last year and 296 BCF, or 9.6%, below the 5 yr avg.
For the week ending Sep 13, another bullish injection is likely with Platts estimating a build of 54 BCF which compares to the 5 yr avg addition of 80 BCF. Supply/demand estimates this week suggest a looser balance as a decline in gas demand outpaced production cuts and weaker Canadian imports.
Impacting power burn, Francine cut power to more than 475,000 customers across 3 states with the worst of the storm missing LNG facilities closest to Francine’s path. While facilities in TX and LA were unscathed by Francine, feedgas deliveries remain depressed. Gas flows fell to 12 BCF/day on Wednesday, rising slightly yesterday to 12.2 BCF/day with today’s estimate at 11.9 BCF/day. Prior to Francine, feedgas demand was around about 13.5 BCF/day.

Storm related demand destruction appears to have been digested by the market with nat gas trading flat to higher this morning on continued support from storage data. Production levels also remain below 100 BCF/day today, coming in at 99.8 BCF/day.

A bullish breakout occurred in the natural gas market on Thursday as the October 24 contract finally broke out and closed above 2.300 resistance which had held the past two weeks.
With resistance broken, the October contract rallied up to a 2.394 high before closing the session at 2.357, up .087 (3.8%).
Volume was heavy at 231,423 contracts.
2.400-2.420 is near term resistance. This is where the October contract last topped in late-July and mid-August.
If 2.400-2.420 resistance is broken, the 50% retracement resistance of the June-July downtrend at 2.500 will become the next area of resistance.
Former resistance at 2.300 is now primary support. As long as the October contract holds over 2.300, the primary trend will remain up.
Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bullish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish
Relative Strength Index -65.60






This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) (NFA ID: 0476094) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”) (NFA ID: 0449652) and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers. Additionally, this material should not be construed as research material. The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss, and you should fully understand the risks prior to trading. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of SXM. All references to futures and options on futures trading are made solely on behalf of SFI. SXM products are intended to be traded only by individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
SFI and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences.
(1) The StoneX Market Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity. The StoneX Market Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal. This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Reproduction or use in any format without authorization is forbidden. © Copyright 2024. All rights reserved.




