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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-19-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Nat gas prices fell to 5 week lows on Friday as output remained near a monthly record while European prices tumbled 12%. Friday’s drop followed a 9% loss on Thursday after a deal was struck to avert a rail strike and on a larger than expected injection.  Friday’s trade ended with the Oct contract down 56 cents to settled at $7.764. The spot month ended the volatile trading week down 3%, marking the 4th straight weekly loss. 

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Output held near steady over the weekend near 96.15 BCF/day while consumption averaged 86.5 BCF/day.  Annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG could begin soon, helping push additional supply back into the NE gas market.  

With production maintaining near record high levels, consumption expected to fall and storage injections likely to be strong through the next 6 weeks, a break in prices is expected.  

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A recovery in wind generation this month has resulted in less coal and nat gas demand for power generation.  We are starting to see a slight downturn in wind production which could boost near term nat gas demand.

Power burn is currently at 37.1 BCF/day, which is up 4.6 BCF/day from last year.  Platts projects power burn will average 37.4 BCF/day over the next week and 36.9 BCF/day during the 8-14 day period. 

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TS Fiona strengthened into a hurricane last night as it tracked landfall along Puerto Rico.  Fiona is expected to become the first major hurricane of the season by mid week.  Fiona poses no threat to the Gulf with its track also likely to keep it away from the East Coast. 
Prices are currently trading lower.
Technical Analysis
 
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The October 22 natural gas contract traded in a very wide 1.521 range in last week’s trade closing Friday at 7.764.  For the week, the contract lost .254 closing lower for a 4th consecutive week.

Early selling today has dropped the contract under 7.500 support which turns the 200 day moving average at 6.360 and trend line support beginning at the December 2021 low currently at 6.100 into longer term support areas to watch.

7.500 is near term resistance followed by 7.750.  10 day moving average resistance is at 8.110 today.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 39.12

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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