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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-22-25

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

StoneX Value Matrix

image-20250922082026-1

Source: StoneX Value Matrix (2), Bloomberg

StoneX Commodity Indicator

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Source:  StoneX Commodity Indicator (1), Bloomberg

Fundamentals & Weather

Following sharp gains early last week, rally attempts fizzled on Wednesday, with selling pressure continuing through Friday’s session. The late week decline reflected limited concern over season ending stocks, which are projected to land between 3.9 and 4.0 TCF. LNG exports also remain soft as terminals undergo seasonal maintenance, while weather patterns continue to favor warmth.  Adding to Thursday’s more than 16 cent drop, the Oct contract fell 5.1 cents on Friday to settle at $2.888. 

A warm pattern is expected to continue across the US over the next 2 weeks. The 6-10 day outlook calls for widespread above normal temps, with the strongest anomalies in the northern Rockies and northwestern Midwest. The East will start warmer than normal but trend closer to seasonal levels late in the period.  Widespread warmth persists during the 11-15 day period, though the East Coast may average closer to normal.

image 119802

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Production levels pulled back late last week, falling to 105.2 BCF/day on Friday.  Output rose to 106.4 BCF/day over the weekend but is back down this morning at 105.6 BCF/day.  Production variability is likely due to maintenance.  Platts projects output will remain at an average of 105.7 BCF/day over the next 2 weeks.

The nat gas drilling rig count was unchanged last week at 118 rigs.

image 119804

Source: NOAA

Cheniere has begun production on Train 3 of its Corpus Christi expansion. Once completed, the Stage 3 project will add 7 trains and boost output capacity by more than 10 mmt/yr, bringing total capacity above 25 mmt/yr.  Trains 4–7 are slated for completion in 2026. On Friday, Corpus Christi received about 2.1 Bcf/d of feedgas, pushing total feedgas demand to 16.2 BCF/day. Demand eased over the weekend to 15.4 BCF/day and has fallen another 0.5 BCF/day this morning to 14.9 BCF/day.

image 119805

Source: Bloomberg

Weather driven demand should remain moderate this week, with very warm conditions in the West and South offset by comfortable highs across the Central US keeping overall demand muted.

Spot month prices are near flat this morning with all other contracts trading lower.

image-20250922082253-3

Source: Bloomberg, CME

For a second time in two weeks, the October 25 natural gas contract attempted an upside breakout above 10 and 40 day moving average resistance, and the breakout failed.

In last week’s trade, the breakout attempt reached a 3.168 weekly high on Wednesday but sold off into the Friday’s close ending the week at 2.888.  For the week, the October contract was down .053.

Last week’s close back under 10 and 40 day moving average support keeps the market in a sideways to lower range.

The contract low for the October contract at 2.738 is near term support followed by 2.622, the 2025 spot contract low set three weeks ago.

40 day moving average resistance is at 2.955 today followed by the 10 day average at 3.000.  Longer term resistance levels are the 3.168 and 3.198 highs set over the past two weeks.  A rally above 3.198 will turn the trend back up.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Follow Following Index - Bullish

Relative Strength Index - 45.55

image 119809

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119808

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119807

Source: Bloomberg, CME

image 119448

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

image 118877

Source: Bloomberg, CME, StoneX Value Matrix (2)

Forward Curve Pricing

image 119806

Source: Bloomberg, CME

Disclaimer
(1)  The StoneX Commodity Indicator provides an overall view of market sentiment for a commodity based on the quantification of fundamental, technical and historical market data related to that commodity.  The StoneX Commodity Indicator History graphically represents each day’s actual very bearish to very bullish signal.  This history contains the sum of all factors, excluding weather forecasts.
(2) The StoneX Value Matrix provides a measure of historical value by analyzing historical price data distributed into 10 deciles. The prices are adjusted for inflation using the Producer Price Index (PPI) published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 

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