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Daily Natural Gas Market Update 9-9-22

By: Heather Wine, Senior Risk Manager - Energy

Daily Natural Gas Market Update
 
Heather Wine
Senior Risk Manager | (312) 373-8250
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
Price Summary table
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 4-Year price deciles Normal & Redistributed

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Fundamentals & weather

Following 3 straight losing sessions, downward momentum in nat gas was halted yesterday by an expanding storage deficit in the US.  The Oct contract settled 7.3 cents higher at $7.915. This week’s selloff has been largely driven by record production levels. Additionally, while tropical activity has picked up this weekend, a lack of movement into the Gulf of Mexico has allowed output to stay on track.  

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The EIA reported a build of 54 BCF for the week ended Sep 2, leaving total gas stocks at 2.694 TCF.  The build matched expectations but fell short of the 5 yr avg which expanded the deficit to 349 BCF.  Compared to last year, stocks are 222 BCF lower. 

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The 8-14 day outlook shows relief in the West from the recent heat wave while the remainder of the US averages warmer than normal for mid to later this month.  

The 11-15 day period is forecast to yield 36.5 CDDs which is higher than both last year and the 30 yr norm. Avg temps for Sep drop throughout the month leaving hotter conditions less of a factor.  

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The first week of Sep typically marks a shift to larger injections as heat fades.  Record heat in the West however is expected to have driven injections lower.  Platts expects a 53 BCF build for the week ending Sep 9 which would significantly undershoot the 5 yr avg build of 82 BCF and last year’s build of 78 BCF.
Nat gas prices are heading higher this morning but are still on track for a weekly loss of more than 7%.  
Technical Analysis
 
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The October 22 natural gas contract turned back higher on Thursday following a three day break which erased 1.420 or 15.3% from the value of the contract.

Once current strength ends, renewed weakness is expected.

Primary resistance remains the 40 day moving average broken as support earlier this week currently at 8.475.  This is followed by the 10 day average at 8.680.  As long as the October contract remains under these two averages, the trend will remain down.

Weekly low support is at 7.750 followed by 7.500-7.530.

Longer term 200 day moving average support where the October contract bottomed in early -July is currently at 6.240.

Moving Average Alignment – Neutral-Bearish
Long Term Trend Following Index – Bullish
Short Term Trend Following Index – Bearish
Relative Strength Index – 43.44

Seasonal Pricing
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Forward Curve Pricing
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