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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (28), the most active Brent contract closed higher, reaching USD 111.26/bbl (+2.8%). WTI futures followed a more pronounced trajectory, ending the day at USD 99.93/bbl (+3.7%).
The upward movement was driven by the combination of stalled peace talks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave OPEC+ was absorbed by the market without significant reactions, given the logistical challenges of exporting the country’s potential production increase through the Gulf.
This morning (29), the Brent contract for June delivery is trading up 3.0%, quoted at USD 114.59/bbl as of 8:40 AM Brasília time. The movement reflects expectations that the conflict will persist for a longer period, further straining the global oil balance due to the absence of barrels typically supplied from the Persian Gulf.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, U.S. President Donald Trump instructed his advisors to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports, raising the likelihood of an even longer supply disruption. In parallel, Trump posted on social media urging Tehran to "be smart and sign a deal soon."
Why this matters: The possibility of an extended suspension of oil and derivative exports from the Persian Gulf contributes to the perception that the global balance of the commodity will remain heavily impacted by the region's supply restrictions, with approximately 10 mbpd—or 10% of global supply—off the market for a period of two months.
Outlook: The negotiating positions of both sides remain far apart. Iran demands a formal end to the conflict before any discussion of its nuclear program, while the U.S. insists that progress in negotiations is contingent upon including this topic at the table.
What to expect? The clear shift in behavior among financial market participants—who are adopting a less optimistic stance regarding diplomatic negotiations—will likely continue to drive oil prices higher.
The United Arab Emirates formally announced yesterday its exit from OPEC+, effective May 1, ending its participation as the bloc’s fourth-largest producer.
Why this matters? The UAE’s departure is structurally significant for OPEC+’s medium-term balance, but its immediate impact is neutralized by logistical constraints: with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the additional volume lacks a viable export route through the Gulf.
Outlook: Abu Dhabi’s decision signals growing tensions within OPEC+ and could deepen the bloc’s fragmentation, especially if the conflict prolongs the inability to export via the Strait of Hormuz.
What to expect? In the short term, until the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations, the UAE’s departure from OPEC+ will have a marginal impact on prices. The decision’s relevance is expected to grow in the long term, when—if Gulf flows normalize—the additional volume from the former member could exert downward pressure on the price curve.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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