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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (14th), the most actively traded Brent contract saw a slight increase, closing at USD 105.72/bbl (+0.09%). WTI followed a similar trajectory, ending the session at USD 101.17/bbl (+0.15%).
The fragile balance seen on Thursday reflected conflicting fundamentals operating simultaneously: while the passage of roughly 30 ships through the Strait of Hormuz sparked optimism about a possible resumption of flows through the route, attacks on a cargo ship and the seizure of a vessel anchored near Fujairah in the UAE kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated, preventing more significant price declines.
This Friday morning (15th), Brent is trading at USD 109.19/bbl (+2.2%) as of around 8:30 AM. The upward movement was triggered by Trump's statement, following a meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing, that he is "losing patience" with Iran, reigniting fears of renewed American military operations in the Persian Gulf.
Discussions between Trump and Xi in Beijing produced statements of alignment on two sensitive points: the need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and opposition to an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. However, the Chinese president has yet to clarify whether he will leverage his influence to encourage Tehran to resume peace negotiations with the U.S.
Meanwhile, in an interview with Fox News last night, Trump stated that he is "running out of patience" and that Iran "should strike a deal," further intensifying pressure on the Iranian government to return to the negotiation table.
Why This Matters: Despite the conciliatory tone between Beijing and Washington, the lack of concrete measures regarding the conflict limits the practical impact of these statements on energy commodity prices, leaving investors uncertain about Xi Jinping's willingness to press the Iranian government to speed up negotiations.
Outlook: Xi denounced the militarization of the Strait and Iranian attempts to impose tolls on transit as unacceptable, a stance that could serve as a basis for future diplomatic pressure on Tehran, albeit without a clear timeline.
What to Expect? While the initial convergence between China and the U.S. has contributed to some stability in oil prices over the past few days, the lack of concrete actions regarding the conflict is likely to keep oil prices supported – as evidenced by the early trading session today.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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