
Daily Coffee Report 8/11/26
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By: Diana Delgado, Contractor

Far-Right De La Espriella Wins First Round of Presidential Elections, Colombia Heads to Second Round On June 21
Coffee Network (Bogotá) — Colombia will head to a presidential runoff on June 21, with far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella emerging as a surprise challenger to leftist candidate Iván Cepeda. The second-round vote could mark a significant shift away from President Gustavo Petro's agricultural and security policies.
De la Espriella won the first round with 43.8% of the vote, equivalent to about 10.3 million ballots, while Cepeda, widely viewed as the candidate most closely aligned with Petro's administration, obtained 41.13%, or 9.6 million ballots, according to the national civil registry office.
De la Espriella's prospects improved after center-right candidate Paloma Valencia, who won 6.9% of the vote, announced on May 31 that she would support him in the runoff. Valencia was backed by former president Álvaro Uribe's Democratic Center party, and Uribe also urged his supporters to vote for de la Espriella.
Combined, de la Espriella's 10.34 million votes and Valencia's 1.63 million votes would give him a substantial advantage over Cepeda's first-round total, although second-round voting patterns often differ from those in the first round. Some center candidates, who also lost in yesterday’s elections, have said they will support Cepeda, although they did not obtain more than 1 million votes each.
Colombia held the first round of presidential elections on May 31, but neither candidate achieved the 50% plus one vote required to win outright.
The 47-year-old lawyer and businessman has vowed to strengthen the country's security forces and build 10 large-scale prisons modeled on the system implemented by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
Yet the debate over the next three weeks is expected to become ugly and heated as two candidates lambasted against each other. Cepeda called de la Espriella the lawyer of paramilitaries and narcotraffickers, while he said he is the expression of fascism. De la Espriella said Cepeda is narcoterrorist, who will throw Colombia into the hands of communism. , while he said Petro is a drug addict.
Incumbent Petro said he will not accept the result of the ballots. Cepeda said the same.
De La Espriella replied: "Petro, Cepeda, a pair of criminals, do not dare, do not even think about disregarding the will of the people, because there is a nation here that will stand up to you and defeat you," De la Espriella said in a speech from Barranquilla after the preliminary first-round election results were announced.
De La Espriella said he seeks to regain territorial control in rural areas where violence, extortion and armed group activity have intensified under President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” policy.
The debate has become particularly relevant in agricultural regions such as Colombia’s coffee- and cocoa-producing departments, where growers report increasing pressure from dissident armed groups seeking territorial and financial control.
Petro, elected in 2022, became Colombia’s first leftist president.
Security and “Total Peace” Under Scrutiny
Enrique Gómez, Senate leader of the Salvación Nacional party, controlled by De la Espriella, said Colombia’s main challenge is restoring operational control across the country and strengthening public order through a more robust security strategy.
According to Gómez, security conditions have deteriorated under Petro’s “Total Peace” framework, which seeks negotiated settlements with armed groups. De la Espriella said he will regain control of territory thanks to the help of the Donald Trump administration.
“Let the United States of America and democratic parties monitor this runoff election. I will lead this battle; I will be Colombia’s best warrior,” de la Espriella said in an impassioned speech Sunday night, behind bullet-proof glass in front of supporters.
Crime figures have reinforced concerns over public safety. Homicides totaled 6,642 cases between January and June 2025, up 3% from 6,442 during the same period a year earlier, according to Defense Ministry data cited by Insight Crime.
Kidnappings also increased, with authorities reporting 121 cases in the first half of 2025 compared with 108 in the same period of 2024. While the number of incidents rose 12%, the number of victims climbed 53%, from 129 to 198.
Insight Crime said the data reflect growing instability in rural regions and highlight the challenges facing Petro’s strategy in curbing violence and organized crime.
Violence in Coffee- and Cocoa-Producing Regions
Huila, Colombia’s largest coffee-producing department, is facing mounting extortion pressure from dissident factions of the former Farc guerrilla group, which are allegedly charging coffee growers fees based on the number of coffee trees planted on their farms, according to local reports and testimony from a grower who requested anonymity.
Several dissident groups, including factions linked to aliases Calarcá and Iván Mordisco, are reportedly demanding payments of up to COP300 ($0.07) per coffee tree, while other groups charge lower rates, the grower told Coffee Network.
According to the source, two brothers who sold coffee to the cooperative Coopcentral were killed after refusing to comply with extortion demands imposed by one of the armed groups.
Violence linked to extortion and territorial control has increasingly affected Colombia’s coffee sector in recent years. One of the most high-profile cases occurred in August 2023 in Algeciras, Huila, where brothers José Dilmer Toro Álvarez, 20, and Alexander Toro Álvarez, 17, were killed inside their home in the village of Las Brisas. Authorities attributed the attack to armed groups targeting residents who refused to pay extortion fees.
Another widely reported incident took place in April 2024 in La Plata, Huila, when siblings Luisa Fernanda and Sergio Trujillo Peña were killed after an explosive device detonated at a service station. Authorities linked the attack to reprisals by dissident groups associated with alias Iván Mordisco over the non-payment of so-called vacunas, or extortion payments.
More recently, dissident factions have reportedly summoned presidents of local community action boards (Juntas de Acción Comunal) and informed them that all coffee growers in their jurisdictions must pay fees per coffee tree, according to the grower.
“The situation is very serious,” the source said.
The alleged extortion schemes are affecting municipalities including Acevedo, Garzón, Algeciras, Hobo and La Plata, the grower added.
Elections and Armed Group Influence
The grower also alleged that illegal armed groups are “carnetizando” residents — issuing identification cards or permits allegedly required to move through certain areas. In Colombia, carnetizar generally refers to providing identification documents, but in conflict zones the term can also describe coercive systems of territorial and social control imposed by armed groups.
The source further claimed that dissident factions are pressuring residents to support left-wing presidential candidate Iván Cepeda ahead of the upcoming elections.
A coffee grower in Antioquia — Colombia’s second-largest coffee-producing department — said he has also been forced to pay extortion fees to guerrilla groups operating near his farm close to the Ituango hydroelectric project in order to transport coffee beans to ports.
Coffee Sector Proposals
De la Espriella’s Security Agenda
De la Espriella has proposed building 10 large-scale prisons across Colombia, modeled after the prison system implemented by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. The proposed mega-prisons are intended to prevent criminals from being released because of prison overcrowding or failures in the judicial system, while also stopping criminal organizations from operating inside detention centers.
The candidate has linked the initiative to what he describes as a “temporary” legal framework that would allow authorities to arrest, prosecute and keep offenders in prison without release.
“We need a special temporary legal framework that allows us to attack this criminal pandemic in the best possible way,” De la Espriella said. “Colombia’s situation is not normal — it is completely abnormal. This is a criminal pandemic.”
The proposal mirrors security policies adopted by right-wing governments that De la Espriella has publicly praised, although similar measures have faced criticism from international organizations, including the Organization of American States (OAS), over alleged human rights violations.
De la Espriella has also pledged to regain territorial control and end all peace negotiations with armed groups. To achieve that, he proposes a type of “Plan Colombia II” focused on aggressive military operations against illegal armed organizations.
“We have to retake the territories with the resources we currently have because I will inherit a demoralized and underfunded security force,” he said. “We also need to renew a strategic alliance with the United States and Israel.”
The candidate has promised to reduce violence by 50% and restore full territorial control nationwide.
His strategy also includes resuming aerial bombings against armed groups. “We have to bomb narco-guerrilla camps,” he said, arguing such actions are necessary in regions including Cauca. To support these operations, he proposes reactivating and strengthening military intelligence capabilities.
As part of his broader security platform, De la Espriella also proposes creating a “first line of security” composed of retired military personnel and reservists working alongside citizens and law enforcement to combat crimes such as cellphone, bicycle and bag theft.
He says the initiative would help reclaim neighborhood parks and public spaces from microtrafficking gangs. The proposal resembles a similar initiative promoted by Rodrigo Lara Restrepo during his 2023 campaign for mayor of Bogotá.
De la Espriella has also proposed reducing the size of the state by 40%.
The candidate is perceived as having strong support among coffee growers. Former senator Alejandro Corrales, a long-time advocate for Colombia’s coffee sector, is currently coordinating political efforts for De la Espriella in his home department.
De la Espriella also wants to reactivate Colombia’s oil and natural gas sectors, accelerate hydraulic fracturing, in a bid to accelerate production of gas as the country is currently importing 20% of the gas it consumes because of lack of exploration amid the ban to award exploration and production contracts with Petro and no recent discoveries.
Cepeda’s Agrarian Reform Proposals
Cepeda has pledged to add 1 million hectares to Colombia’s agrarian reform program. According to government figures, more than 700,000 hectares had been incorporated into the Land Fund as of December, although only about 270,000 hectares had been formally distributed to farmers and ethnic communities.
The Petro administration achieved those figures with record funding for the National Land Agency (ANT), though Cepeda’s proposal would require significant fiscal resources at a time when Colombia faces mounting budget pressures.
The senator also proposes expanding subsidies for agricultural production, including the delivery of machinery and other support programs.
One of the main criticisms of Petro’s land reform strategy has been the lack of productive projects capable of making redistributed land economically viable for farmers.
Cepeda also wants to reform Colombia’s public procurement framework to make it easier for community organizations, community kitchens and farmers’ markets to access public contracts and tenders. He has additionally pledged to deepen left-wing reforms and expand services and benefits for victims of the armed conflict.
By Diana Delgado
Speeches of the candidates, coffee grower and the national civil registry office.
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August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.


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