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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (19th), the most active Brent contract closed with a 1.2% increase, reaching USD 108.6 bbl. Meanwhile, WTI futures took a different path, ending the day at USD 96.1 bbl (-0.2%).
Despite surpassing USD 119 bbl yesterday morning—driven by attacks on energy assets in the Middle East—oil futures saw a sharp reduction in gains after the U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed that the White House is considering lifting sanctions on Iranian barrels stored on offshore platforms.
This morning (20th), the May 2026 Brent contract is trading down 0.7%, priced at USD 107 bbl as of 9:00 AM. The possibility of lifting sanctions on part of Iranian oil continues to pressure commodity prices. Nonetheless, crude oil prices are still expected to close higher for the fifth consecutive week, with no resolution in sight for the Middle Eastern conflict.
Yesterday afternoon, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the possibility of the White House lifting sanctions on Iranian barrels stored offshore. According to Bessent, this measure would release approximately 140 million barrels into the market.
Why This Matters: The anticipation around the lifting of sanctions has eased investor concerns regarding the global balance, leading to a rapid decline in the gains recorded during the previous session. However, it is important to note that no official decree has been issued by Washington so far.
Overview: In recent days, concerns about the Middle Eastern situation have continued to grow, with no clear timeline for resolving the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. As a result, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, with few vessels willing to make the passage and a significant portion of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf stranded in the region.
What to Expect: In the coming days, the market is likely to remain focused on new announcements from the White House, with the release of additional reserves and potential military developments expected to influence oil price volatility.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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