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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (25), the most active Brent contract closed down 2.2%, quoted at USD 102.2/bbl. WTI futures followed the same trajectory, ending the day at USD 90.3/bbl, also down 2.2%.
Crude oil futures were broadly pressured after the United States sent a ceasefire proposal to Iran, raising expectations of a potential easing of tensions in the Middle East. In the afternoon, however, part of the losses were reversed after the Iranian government denied any peace talks with Washington.
This morning (26), the May 2026 Brent contract is trading up 4.5%, quoted at USD 106.8/bbl at 09:00. Low expectations regarding the consolidation of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran have allowed bullish momentum to return to the market.
Last night, Iran’s Minister of Interior confirmed that the country is analyzing a peace proposal sent by the U.S. However, it was also stated that the Iranian regime does not consider initiating talks with Washington to approve measures aimed at containing tensions, but rather to achieve a complete suspension of the conflict.
Why this matters: Despite the diplomatic rapprochement between the two countries, the market understands that Washington and Tehran are working with several points of divergence in the negotiations, causing expectations for a short-term agreement to decline again.
Overview: In recent days, the market has observed the White House seeking to reach a mutual agreement with Iran to end the war. At the same time, Washington continues to suggest that if negotiations fail, it is considering escalating measures, including ground incursions into Iranian territory.
What to expect: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran appears to be reaching another level, with the saturation of the oil market due to the blockade of the strait resulting in the need to reopen the channel that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.
Crude oil: According to DOE data, U.S. commercial crude inventories increased last week, in line with market expectations.
Diesel: Diesel inventories also rose, moving away from the five-year lows for the period.
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