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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (26), the most active Brent contract closed up 5.6%, at USD 108.1/bbl. WTI futures followed the same trajectory, ending the session at USD 94.5/bbl, up 4.6%.
Throughout the previous session, frustrations related to the lack of progress in negotiations for a possible ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran once again provided support to oil prices, as the market priced in the maintenance of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz over the coming days.
This morning (27), the Brent contract for May 2026 delivery is trading up 2.9%, quoted at USD 111.1/bbl at 09:30. The market’s bullish momentum remains intact, with bets pointing to an extension of the blockade period in the Strait of Hormuz and greater difficulty for the Asian market in finding alternative suppliers capable of meeting the continent’s demand.
Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an extension of the temporary suspension of attacks on Iranian energy assets, granting the country’s government a twelve-day deadline (April 7) to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: The Trump administration’s decision to extend the deadline for reopening the Strait, along with renewed threats of potential attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, reduces expectations for new diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington, while increasing concerns over a prolonged blockade of the route that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world.
Backdrop: In recent days, the White House has been seeking ways to negotiate with the Iranian government to end the suspension of vessel flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, Washington sent, via Pakistan, a 15-point proposal aimed at consolidating an end to the war in the Middle East.
What to expect: The market has adopted a bullish tone amid difficulties in reaching common ground between the U.S. and Iran, with the conflict approaching its 30th day. So far, the lack of solutions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz has severely affected the global balance, particularly in the Asian market, which is highly dependent on exports from the Persian Gulf.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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