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By: Bruno Santos, Market Intelligence Analyst
Yesterday (30), the most active Brent contract closed up 1.97%, quoted at USD 107.4/bbl. WTI futures followed the same path, ending the day at USD 102.9/bbl, with gains of 3.25%.
Throughout the previous session, oil prices were supported by the entry of the Yemeni Houthi group into the conflict, heightening fears over potential impacts on logistical flows of oil and refined products through the Red Sea.
This morning (31), the Brent contract for June 2026 delivery is trading flat, quoted at USD 107.5/bbl (+0.1%) at 08:30. Despite rumors about a possible withdrawal of the U.S. fleet from the Persian Gulf, the Iranian attack on a large Kuwaiti oil tanker in the Persian Gulf continues to support commodity prices.
According to a Wall Street Journal report released last night, U.S. President Donald Trump is considering ending the U.S. military campaign against Iran – even in a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Why it matters: The WSJ report resulted in mixed signals for the market. While the news suggests a possible significant reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with a potential withdrawal of U.S. military assets from the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, it also indicates that suspended barrels from the Persian Gulf may not return to the market immediately once Washington signals its exit from the region.
Outlook: Since mid-last week, investors have increasingly priced in expectations of an extended suspension of flows through the Persian Gulf, with oil holding above USD 100/bbl since March 11.
What to expect: Market attention now turns to potential actions by the U.S. government. The volume of conflicting information makes it difficult to forecast the evolution of the conflict, with investors closely monitoring developments in the coming days.
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WTI and Brent crude are moving to different beats as a possible U.S. Iran deal reshapes the oil market. The two benchmarks are pricing Strait of Hormuz risk in their own ways, and the gap between them says a lot about where crude goes next.
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