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DO NOT USE/DO NOT USE/DO NOT USE

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

May '23 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
 

 
 
major global urea export location price graphs
The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are derived from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  Your values will likely have significant basis difference (similar to your local grain price being different than the traded market price).
This graph is labeled as MT in USD currency.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Global
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North America

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Should you buy your spring '23 urea needs today
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North America
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cme futures settlement indications
While the fertilizer futures market is far from as liquid as its grain counterparts, it is still active and gives us an insight into what the market is thinking.
Please note that the values below can and will change daily.  This is merely a look at where they are as of writing:
 NOLA UreaMiddle East UreaCFR Brazil Urea
May$367.50$332.50$342.50
June$332.50$335.00-
July$325.00$342.50$361.50
August$327.00$342.50$365.00
September $330.00$342.50$365.00
October$335.00$350.00-
November$335.00--
December$335.00--
January '24$347.50--
February$347.50--
March$347.50--
general global urea information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
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Where are current values in relation to the past

NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 

Number 3 global importer in 2022

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Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - +45% or approximately $140 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +27% or approximately $95 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago --17% or approximately $90 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago --31% or approximately $200 lower

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U.S. Midwest Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - +29% or approximately $109 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago -+11% or approximately $45 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago --23% or approximately $143 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago --35% or approximately $259 lower

U.S. Southern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago -+15% or approximately $63 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago -+9% or approximately $40 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago --23% or approximately $140 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -34% or approximately $243 lower

U.S. Northern Plains Average

  • Vs 30 days ago - +29% or approximately $109 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +10% or approximately $45 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - -26% or approximately $173 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -32% or approximately $233 lower

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

  • Vs 30 days ago - +10% or approximately $30 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -15% or approximately $58 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -47% or approximately $293 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -56% or approximately $410 lower

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Egypt

Number 4 global exporter in 2022

image 73014

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - +8% or approximately $27 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -18% or approximately $78 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -44% or approximately $285 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -56% or approximately $453 lower

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Black Sea

Number 1 global exporter in 2022

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Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - +15% or approximately $38 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -21% or approximately $80 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -46% or approximately $253 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - $57% or approximately $383 lower

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China

Number 9 global exporter in 2022

image 73016

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - -4% or approximately $13 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -21% or approximately $90 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -45% or approximately $270 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -53% or approximately $373 lower

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Brazil

Number 2 global importer in 2022

image 73017

Price comparisons

  • Vs 30 days ago - +9% or approximately $28 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - -17% or approximately $68 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -46% or approximately $283 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -57% or approximately $445 lower

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Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
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Bearish Factors
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Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

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Josh Linville’s focal points
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All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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  • Fertilizers

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