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DO NOT USE/DO NOT USE/DO NOT USE

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

The first graph is the AVERAGE of the entire Midwest U.S. region.  That means your local value WILL be different than what the graph reflects.  Please do not take this into your retailer and say "why isn't my price the same as here".  That is comparing apples to oranges.  You might be on the cheaper or more expensive side of this graph.  This doesn't take into account logistics/storage/interest/insurance/shrink/etc.
This graph looks at the price from a short ton and USD currency POV.
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This second graph looks at the price set for Tampa NH3.  This value does not have a high correlation to Midwest values.  It is a talking point used when prices are rallying...yet somehow gets skipped on the way down.  This price is more an indication of the global price.  This price is set by two parties (purchaser - phosphate producer in Florida / seller - international producer providing NH3 to FL phosphate production).  
This graph CAN be used as an indication of global market price direction/trends.  This graph SHOULD NOT be used to determine a Midwest value.  Tonnage is listed in short ton and currency in USD.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Global
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North America
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should you buy your spring '23 nh3 needs today?
If the current values work for your operation/region/etc., then that is your answer.  Your local market needs to be considered as things like supply availability, demand timing and logistical issues can change the view.  Just because we see the market strong or weak going forward does not mean it will translate to where you live.  We are all a part of the world, but we live at home.
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North America
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general global nh3 information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
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Where are current values in relation to the past
U.S. Midwest Wholesale price average 
  • Vs 30 days ago - 
  • Vs 90 days ago - 
  • Vs 6 months ago - 
  • Vs 1 year ago - 

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U.S. Southern Plains price average

  • Vs 30 days ago - 
  • Vs 90 days ago - 
  • Vs 6 months ago - 
  • Vs 1 year ago - 

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Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
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Bearish Factors
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Where are the current nh3/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 150 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA NH3 price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

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Josh Linville’s focal points
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All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”), StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (“SFFC”) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”). SFI, SFFC and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI, SFFC or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by SFI, SFFC or SXM. The FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc., a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc., is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a futures commission merchant and commodity trading advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. is currently registered as a Futures Commission Merchant or equivalent in all provinces of Canada and is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

 
  • Fertilizers

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