Daily Coffee Report 11/6/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Drought Brings Irreversible Damage to Majority of Colombian Coffee Areas
Diana Delgado
Contractor
Drought Brings Irreversible Damage to Majority of Colombian Coffee Areas
Coffee Network (Bogota) — Recent showers over the past two weeks in Colombia will not remedy the damage caused by three months of extreme drought, according to local coffee growers and exporters.
In Antioquia, Colombia’s second-largest coffee-producing department, three heavy showers have fallen, but rain cannot repair the damage caused by broca (coffee berry borer), which burrows into the kernels and permanently ruins the beans, said coffee grower and exporter Juan Álvaro Arboleda. Arboleda noted that the pest has already taken a heavy toll on plantations across the region.
In the valley of the Suroeste region, three heavy downpours finally broke through the oppressive haze. However, these brief rains could not undo months of infestation or heal the shriveled fruit rotting on the branches; it was barely a pause in the crisis, not a solution. The heat and pests have consumed not only this season’s income but also the long-term health of the trees heading into the next cycle. Weakened wood and ruined branches guarantee that next year’s yield will be stunted before it even has a chance to develop.
In the department of Risaralda, rainfall has been more generous than in Antioquia. A local coffee trader and exporter noted that recent rains are helping bean filling—the critical development phase that had seemed almost lost—recover well, allowing the remaining crop on lower slopes to swell and ripen.
“Pereira’s exporting farms are doing well with these rains. A super-flowering is expected this week or next. The damage here isn't irreversible—with this rain, the remaining grain development will finish, and the harvest will be collected smoothly,” he said.
According to a recent report from coffee research institute Cenicafé, Risaralda received 161 millimeters of rainfall in August, well above the historical monthly average of 111 millimeters.
In southwestern Valle del Cauca, rain is offering relief to coffee trees that endured three months of drought, according to a local grower. However, in certain pockets of the department, tree wilting and crop loss remain severe.
“The rains provide relief, but significant damage has already occurred as the main picking season begins, because the drought accelerated broca reproduction and increased the prevalence of low-grade beans (pasillas),” the grower explained.
Colombia is currently in the middle of picking its main harvest—which accounts for roughly 65% of national output—but crops are coming in severely compromised across key growing regions, including Antioquia, Santander, parts of Huila, Caldas, Risaralda, Quindío, Valle del Cauca, and Tolima.
Reduced rainfall continues to hit coffee plantations in Huila and Antioquia—the country’s two largest producing departments—accelerating broca infestations and degrading bean quality, growers and exporters report. Exporter Café Laumayer noted growing concern over persistent dry conditions, emphasizing that isolated showers offer only fleeting relief.
Currently, the primary impact remains on quality, particularly at elevations below 1,500 meters above sea level where drought-shriveled beans (averanados) and insect damage are concentrated. Coffee Network requested official figures regarding pest spread in these regions, but the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (Fedecafé) did not respond prior to publication.
"These issues reduce the conversion factor from cherry to parchment at the farm level and elevate the yield factor at dry mills, resulting in less export-grade coffee (excelso) and a higher proportion of lower-grade coffee (pasilla)," the exporter explained.
Juan Álvaro Arboleda reported that the municipality of Fredonia is among the hardest hit in southwestern Antioquia. In Ciudad Bolívar, where his own farms are situated, scarce rainfall has allowed pest populations to explode, causing severe localized damage.
Yield factors—the amount of dry parchment required to process a standard 70 kg bag of export-grade coffee—are testing between 98 kg and 100 kg or higher in damaged lots, reflecting severe infestation. Lower yield factors indicate higher bean efficiency and quality.
Colombia, the world’s third-largest coffee producer, is expected to harvest 12.2 million 60-kg bags this coffee year, according to Germán Bahamón, General Manager of Fedecafé. This represents a sharp drop from 13.67 million bags in 2025 and 13.99 million bags in 2024.
“This behavior is in line with the productive adjustment we have been anticipating,” Bahamón stated on his X account, noting that Cenicafé’s forecast of 12.2 million bags is based on technical field evaluations and continuous monitoring across the country's coffee regions.
Next Year's Harvest
The severe drought triggered several concentrated flowerings in Valle del Cauca, which could yield a larger-than-normal secondary harvest (mitaca) between April and June, according to a local exporter.
However, conditions are far grimmer in southern Colombia. In Nariño, where the main harvest takes place from April to June 2027, prolonged dry weather has severely damaged tree health. Armando Benavides of the Nariño Coffee Committee warned that the lack of rainfall will compromise the 2027 crop.
Colombia’s secondary harvest accounts for roughly 35% to 40% of total national production, with picking concentrated in parts of Huila and Tolima, as well as the southern departments of Cauca and Nariño.
By Diana Delgado
Source: Coffee producers and exporters across the nation
- Coffee
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