CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - April 16, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
The Class III and Cheese rally that started Friday continued yesterday as nearby contracts rallied despite a rather stable spot call. Barrels remained unchanged but blocks gained 2.5 cents. Still both prices are in the mid-$1.50s a far cry from the $1.70+ price on the May Cheese futures contract. The culprit: short-covering. Most of the rally and the volume on the rally registered in the May and June contracts yesterday – principally the May contract. And open interest in that contract month – for both Class III and Cheese – fell Monday (-331 Cl3 and -40 Cheese). In fact, about two-thirds of all trades Monday occurred in the May contract.
What has these markets worked up? There appears to be ample fresh cheese available in the country and during the spot call. There also appears to be sufficient milk supplies in cheese producing regions – especially the Upper Midwest presently where over order premiums are running ~$5.00/cwt under Class. On the other side, the central US is running a little leaner on milk flows for this time of year. The HPAI virus is one part of that story.
As of yesterday, the USDA confirmed 28 cases countrywide. We suspect there are quite a few more dairies dealing with this and for a period of a few weeks that milk production loss is material – both for the milk shed and most certainly for the farmer. With speculative money having been net short both Class III and Cheese for months – and speculative money has sold rallies recently – perhaps there is more concerted effort to reduce that short position at a time when peak bearish sentiment typically reigns. Whatever the reason, spot will likely continue to find buyers – but the price actually needs to move up here to support continued nearby price strength. Class III and Cheese were higher overnight on follow thru buying from yesterday.
Butter futures were mixed Monday on light volume (138 contracts) as spot sat steady. NFDM was even quieter with just 59 trade s in a steady to slightly higher trade. Both waiting on this morning GDT auction, which is underway. SGX futures are pointing towards a 2% increase in the GDT price index, following the mild strength at the Pulse auction last week.
The NZ pasture growth index has pulled back from very good seasonal levels to close to the 5-year average. Even before the recent pullback, it was still running below last year.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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