CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - August 15, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese remain remarkably ‘stable’ here midweek as spot cheese and dry whey futures markets help to underpin prices (Class III specifically) around current levels.
The Spot Cheese price gained another half-penny Wednesday but continual offers to sell fresh loads stymied futures market action. The main difference now is the reluctance of futures to build any additional risk premium. In fact, the September Cheese futures contract is trading about 2 cents below current spot averages. There may be several reasons for this but at it the core the futures markets are suggesting spot cheese has moved high enough now.
Nearby Class III and Cheese futures markets have also gained over $1.50/cwt (>$0.10/lb. cheese) in the last week. There’s a lot of energy that went into such a swift move higher. Big moves tend to get ‘consolidated’ – a period of choppy trading in which some traders exit, some traders look for opportunities to get in and prices overall distribute sideways tethered more or less to spot market activity. We’re in that mode the past few days and expect it will continue today.
We’ve remarked fresh cheddar is snug to really tight (barrels) for some time now. That likely has not changed today. And it likely won’t change tomorrow either. But we’d be remiss to ignore demand for cheese also gets a vote in price. The question the market needs to answer now is whether or not that buying remains consistent throughout the week or if the buying burst subsides. Bigger picture (looking out over the coming weeks not days) we expect more spot price strength – or that still remains the clear and present risk in our view. Day to day however – well, markets often stutter step. We shall see.
There’s no stutter step for spot butter. Spot butter is cool as a cucumber lately – clearing hundreds of thousands of pounds of product with relatively little impact on overall price. Futures trading volume slowed – by about half as much volume as Tuesday – with just 149 contracts changing hands Wednesday. Prices were mixed mostly lower after some initial strength. The market remains stagnant waiting for fresh news. We expect that the next move – whenever it develops – will be lower for butter prices.
Spot NFDM is back over $1.2400 as of yesterday – that’s the 18-month high price that was eclipsed last week and quickly reversed course. Futures volume increased with 175 contracts trading with open interest rising by 49 contracts as prices rose more than a cent in deferred months. The Algerian tender closed and prices were released earlier this morning. Markets have yet to react to the news – and maybe they don’t need to but nonetheless large volume was cleared. Ramadan demand will start right about now as the holiday will start earlier next year (Feb 27th - Mar 29th) so those buyers were looking to stock up.
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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