
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now. Download your report →
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III and Cheese futures traded sharply lower Monday morning on news of retaliatory tariffs before getting word that President Trump would pause US Tariffs for a month on some concessions from both Mexico and Canada. Nearby Class III went from 20-50 cents lower to 20-30 cents higher heading into the spot call. Yesterday was a good reminder to the markets that President Trump is not necessarily in love with tariffs per se. He is using them as a negotiating tactic. And so far it seems to be working.
Spot cheese buyers were non-existent on Friday as the trade likely awaited outcomes of the impending trade war. They didn’t want to put their neck on the line late last week ahead of any tariff retaliation. That changed yesterday with four block and four barrel loads changing hands down 1.5 and 2.0 cents, respectively. In our view spot buyers are still here and still want to own cheese around current levels.
Class III and Cheese futures are mixed – and volatile. We’ve all likely heard the word “chaos” in the last few days regarding the current administration’s negotiation strategy. Whether or not that is accurate is immaterial to the outcome: markets are restless and punchy and unpredictable right now (not that they’re ever really predictable). In that environment, options volume has ballooned.
Yesterday 4,100 Class III options trades, which was a repeat of Friday’s surge in options activity that topped out at 4,152 options trades. Over 1,700 Cheese options traded yesterday (avg cheese options volume closer to 400 options). Class III and Cheese trading volume was still rather strong yesterday with over 2,300 Class III and 815 Cheese futures changing hands. Open interest has grown slightly for Class III the last two trading days (Friday and Monday +125 contracts) while Cheese open interest has fared better – growing by 333 contracts the past two trading sessions.
The USDA will release the December Dairy Products report Wednesday afternoon. We won’t be surprised if there are surprises in the report. With new capacity coming online we keep expecting to see some stronger cheese production numbers, but more often than not, cheese production has been coming in weaker than forecast. We’ve heard cheese demand improved in December, and cheese stocks were larger than expected for the month so we’re expecting to see cheese production up 2.1% YoY after being down 1.7% in November. But if we’re wrong, our guess is cheese production comes in lower than forecast. We have butter production up 4.8%, compared to +4.4% in November. If cheese production is weaker than expected, then butter production will likely be stronger than forecast. NFDM+SMP should still be down by a double-digit percentage with protein going to cheese, MPC and yogurt.
Powder stocks held by manufacturers are generally expected to increase between November and December as high/uncompetitive U.S. prices are likely denting exports


CME butter edged out a new low which has been a trend over the last week with prices trading ¼ cent lower to $2.43 on 3 trades, it’s lowest price since June 2023. US butter is likely the most isolated form tariff threats given that most of the consumption is in the US but it likely felt some headline risk over the last few sessions. Futures recovered well from Friday’s volume with 592 contracts trading as open interest rose by 167. Spot nonfat also fell to a new 5 month low falling ½ cent on 7 trades. GDT is wrapping up as of this writing and NZ SMP prices looking to be in line with expectations while WMP looks like it could finish stronger. Although there is not a lot of EU SMP volume on GDT, those prices were mixed to weaker which follows recent futures trading on EEX SMP.
This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.