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Early Morning Update - February 6, 2025

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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The past week served as a reminder for just how impactful policy changes can be to futures markets. Class III and Cheese futures whipped back and forth in a frenzy that began last Friday and ended more or less Tuesday. Following that, a period of relative calm beset the markets as the trade seemingly wants to find some ledge to rest on. Futures trading ranges have narrowed, volume has decreased and spot cheese prices remained steady with no trade activity yesterday. The market has calmed down and appears to be waiting on the next shoe to drop.

While we don’t hear much about new domestic cheese demand, export activity (even just tire kicking by international buyers) seems to remain intact this week. US cheese prices remain quite attractive on the world stage keeping exporters busy answers questions and discussing potential deals for Q2 (principally). Meanwhile, US milk production – like US cheese demand – remains wonky. There are milk shed with plenty of milk reportedly (e.g. Idaho and parts of the Southwest US) and then there is California, which is still digging out from bird flu. In the Midwest, milk production remains stable but component levels have been reported as declining a bit for the first time in quite a while. Overall the sentiment in the area is that milk availability is slightly snug

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Spot cheese appears to be content to clear in the mid to low-$1.80s for now, which ought to draw in a little nearby futures weakness all things equal. Nearby futures were lower overnight and appear ready to whittle away at some of the inversion in the forward curve. All things considered, the Class III and Cheese forward curve is rather flat and stable around current levels awaiting fresh news.

Butter futures posted a new record for single day futures volume yesterday as prices cratered! A whopping 1,149 futures contracts changing hands (amid rising open interest). This eclipsed the prior volume record of 1,122 futures that traded September 4, 2019.

Sometimes these big volume days turn out to mark some sort of short-term bottom after the flurry. And the market is subject to some buying the dip mentality here, but any rally is likely viewed as selling opportunity. The market seems content to chop forward curve premium amid anecdotal reports of continued heavy supplies of cream in the country. Follow-thru selling is kicking off today’s trade.

Wednesday’s heavy volume bump higher for NFDM was quashed yesterday as the market erased those gains and then some (in some contract months). Trade volume was less than half of the busy day on Wednesday with 358 contracts trading yesterday and open interest increasing. Spot remained steady yesterday at $134.000, which is starting to make the NFDM futures market (and its discount) feel a little vulnerable. We’re not quite at the “beach ball under water” stage, but we’re getting there. Calling in mixed/lower early.

 

  • Dairy

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