
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III and Cheese are gearing up for the highly anticipated Milk Production report today. Futures yesterday gained back some of Friday’s losses as Q4 futures remain steady near contract highs. Spot cheese prices continue to recover from monthly lows last week as prices rose 1 cent in blocks and 1.25 cents in barrels. Even with 52 cent whey, a $1.90 cheese price is not enough to justify nearby prices but the market is willing to justify risk premium given milk production expectations. Spot cheese has made lower highs over the last 2 months so we’ll see if we can test and break the recent high of $1.96 this week. Class III volume was slightly higher with 1,405 contracts trading but with open interest only rising 15 contracts as August open interest continues to decline due to more short covering as of late. Class III futures open interest is up just 15 contracts since last Monday. Could be folks just getting out of August and into deffereds but also some summer doldrums.
Spot butter remained steady yesterday after the weakness seen last week. The steady spot market helped nearby futures finish slightly higher but on lighter volume with only 90 contracts trading as open interest was steady due to liquidation in August. As we mentioned yesterday, we’ll looking for a breakout and Q4 futures make look to test the lows from late June.
New Zealand milk equivalent exports in June were down 7.4% from last year, which was much better than the forecast of -17.8%. However, exports for May were revised down from -2.3% to -6.2% which left the May+June exports just 7% lower than forecast. While exports are down, milk production has been down by more in recent months which suggests inventories have been drawn down to very minimal levels. Exports to China remained weak, down 15.7%, which strongly suggests that China’s official imports for July are going to be down for a 12th consecutive month. Looking at the individual products the most interesting one looks like infant formula, up 110% from last year which also lines up with stronger IMF imports by China. Casein/caseinates/MPC exports were also strong, largely driven by product going to the U.S. and China.

GDT Pulse results were mixed with CW WMP up 0.3% vs last weeks GDT while SMP was down -2.0% which equates to $1.13/lb. GDT prices have been below CME NFDM prices since about May. That could be due to expectations of tighter NFDM production in the US and more availability NZ but eventually the US will begin to lose some export business in Asia which causes the US to lean more on Mexico for NFDM business. Will that come? We have yet to see but so far CME has been willing to hold this premium.


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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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