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Early Morning Update - July 30, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Spot cheese edged out new monthly highs yesterday to $1.9625 as barrels were up a ½ cent and blocks 2 cents on a single trade. That helped 2024 contracts from September onward to finish slightly higher as they continue to eek out new contracts highs. Class III futures volume improved with nearly 1,700 contracts trading as open interest increased by 318 contracts. Open interest increases have been sizeable over the last week primarily due to the September contract which has seen open interest increase by 1,100 contracts in the last week but still below levels we’ve seen over the last 5 years. Two supportive reports we saw last week have an underpinning effect so far this week along with modest increases in spot prices, which we do need to see develop given September’s $1.00 premium to the spot market. If not, don’t rule out any pockets of volatility as we sit at contract highs. Managed money is still Long 2,500 contracts Class III contracts.

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One market that has quietly made a significant price move over the past month is Dry Whey. In this last week spot prices surged through the Feb 2024 highs and have now reached it’s highest price since May of 2022 at 57 cents. The strength in the whey market has particularly been to very good demand in the high protein market. That has caused solids to shift from whey production, which has seen steady production growth, to high protein product which saw double digit growth earlier this year. We’ve heard anecdotal comments that dryers have been down recently but overall strong demand has supported this market and with weaker than expected production in the next few months that could continue to underpin the whey market as we close out July.

Spot NFDM printed $1.2400 yesterday for just the third time in the last 18 months. The sideways price distribution for NFDM may be coming to a close. If history repeats itself, Spot NFDM should retreat from this level and move back into the teens. The risk we see, however, is upside. While demand hasn’t notably changed, price action has been firm here in late July. The market may be on the precipice of starting to weigh in tighter stocks and tighter milk supplies – two factors that have seemingly evaded this market for months – as we move into August.

GDT had a two week break this month so we had a GDT Pulse this morning. Price were basically flat with WMP (Regular) up 0.2% to $3,100 and SMP down 0,6% to $2,480 ($1.125/lb). With CME NFDM spot prices rising 3/4ths of a cent yesterday, GDT prices are now roughly 11-12 cents below CME spot prices. That largest spread we saw was about 13.5 cents in November of 2022 when Chinese imports were falling.

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  • Dairy

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