
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Dairy markets were open Friday but most participants were still away for the 4th of July holiday. Trading volumes plummeted. Class III led the volume with just 758 contracts changing hands. Cheese futures traded just 62 times. Both Class III and Cheese futures markets strengthened into the weekend however (at least for 2024 contracts) as spot cheese saw a steady bid for both block and barrel cheese. There were no offers and no trades, but stability in spot allowed those traders who showed up on Friday to consider other factors – namely heat.
It’s widely known that the US gets hot in the summer. This is not news. But it’s not every year we break heat records (though that seems to be the case more often these days). And it’s not every year we come into the heat of the summer with generally underwhelming milk production when we look back at the “flush” months. That is the case this year.
Between some tough on-farm financial times over the past year, lack of replacements, and Avian Flu – dairy producers have their hands full with issues that can limit their ability to make more milk. Really hot weather in certain milk sheds then may, in our view, accentuate those problems. Can these dairy farmers handle the heat? You bet. But this hot weather does not exist in a vacuum – it may have an additive effect on what is already a tight milk production picture. On the other hand, feed prices are coming down and that is helping. Our point this morning is that for now the perception of potential problems is the reality of the markets, which may become a supportive feature of the trade this week. We shall see.
Butter futures ended the short week on weak volume with only 81 contracts trading as prices finished a ¼ cent lower. Spot prices last week failed out to take out the highs from early June of $3.1625. Nonetheless they only sit a few cents away from those highs and could be testing them again this week. Global prices were weaker last week, particularly in NZ as butter fell 10.2% which was greater than forecasted but expected given the increase in volume on offer. The US market is largely a domestic market but a shift in prices/sentiment globally should still be monitored.
NFDM volumes were also bleak as spot was unchanged on Friday and overall unchanged on the week. Futures prices were initially trading lower at the beginning of the week due to a weaker than expected GDT, particularly in SMP and fats but NFDM was able to recover slightly Wednesday into Friday as they came off nearly two month lows. Domestically, US exports in May were weaker than expected, down -24.2% YoY and we saw stronger stocks in last week Dairy Production report as well.
Dairy cow slaughter in the U.S. continues to run well below year-ago levels. Slaughter during the week ending June 22 was 20.82% below year-ago levels, bringing the 4-week rolling slaughter total to an 18.54%. Dairy cow slaughter was just below 45,000 head, bringing the market share of dairy cows in the beef market down to 7.3%. Total cattle slaughter was fairly week as well, 5.22% below year-ago levels.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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