Quarterly Commodities Outlook is available for free now.  Download your report  →

StoneX logo

Early Morning Update - June 21, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

image-20240621073752-1

After three days of tracking the weakening spot cheese market closely, the July futures contract – and really all of 2024 Class III and Cheese futures – rallied yesterday despite spot weakness. And they did so with some good volume and rising open interest. Over 2,100 Class III and 532 Cheese futures changed hands and open interest increased 332 and 118, respectively. The short answer is that Friday, Monday and Tuesday represented a 3-day correction in a still bullish market.

In our view, the trade focused on a good two-sided (though weaker) spot call that revealed good buyer interest, building some risk premium ahead of today’s May Milk Production report and a general underlying concern that demand remains on solid footing relative to pockets of tight milk supply. Thirteen block loads and 7 barrel loads changed hands yesterday with 3 and 4 bids left on the board for blocks and barrels. Yes there seems to be a pocket of fresh available cheese to come to market here and there were offers left on the board for both products yesterday too, but buyers don’t appear full of cheese and ready to back down. Not yet at least. And given concerns over fresh milk supplies in Texas and the West, we suspect they will continue to show bids during the spot call. And that’s before the futures rallied yesterday making spot the least expensive US cheese in 2024 presently.

The Midwest appears to have some milk and we make a lot of cheese here. The spot milk basis in the Upper Midwest slipped a little lower this week with loads being traded at a $1.50 under Class III. Summer heat continues to put a damper on cow comfort and reports the USDA is getting from farmers indicates that milk production is feeling the pain and weakening. Offers are quite for spot milk at the moment, likely due to the impending holiday. Cream availability is reportedly tightening as ice cream production is helping to take volume from the cream supply.

image-20240621073827-2

We’ll get a look at the latest US Milk Production data after the market closes today. We’re expecting U.S. headline milk production to be down 0.5% from last year after being down 0.4% in April. With slaughter running well below last year, the dairy herd was likely steady or up slightly from April, but still down about 0.8% from last year. Milk production per cow came in higher than expected for April and the USDA revised up March as well. So far it looks like lower feed costs and easier year-over-year comparisons are offsetting the negative impact that bird flu is having on yields. Even with headline milk production down 0.5% that would still leave component adjusted production up about 1.3% thanks to strong YoY gains in fat and protein in the milk for May.

image-20240621073827-3

CME Spot butter has been relatively steady the last two weeks, staying in a tight 3 cent range and falling to the bottom end of that range yesterday as sellers pushed prices 2.75 cents lower to 3.08. A steady spot market has put pressure on futures over the same time frame as they’ve grinded steadily lower and will be looking to test the lows from late May. Butter futures volume has seen good volume the last two sessions, particularly on Tuesday trading 411 contracts and 149 yesterday. Tuesday saw a strong Open interest increase of 207 contracts as there was likely new selling as prices were down as much as 3 cents in defered months. If milk production comes in weaker than expected and cheese demand remains on solid footing as mentioned earlier, it could quickly changes the dynamics of butter heading into the summer.

Nonfat futures caught a bid yesterday after trading mostly lower after a mixed results for powders on GDT on Tuesday. With the forward curve losing some premium over the last couple weeks, it could’ve been buyers looking to buy a decent break ahead of the milk production report. Nonetheless, spot prices had broken out of a tight trading range seen through most of June, trading up to their highest price sine February. US spot prices are now in line with EU prices which could create some headwinds for the US exports but it also could be due to potential Chinese tariffs on EU dairy products. That is still a developing story that we are watching closely as no concrete details are out yet as to which products would be affected.  

  • Dairy

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.