
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Last week’s Class III and Cheese buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact trade on the Texas dairy cattle illness gave way to indecision Monday. Traders are faced with weighing ho-hum cheese demand (and/or good availability of fresh cheese off exchange) against the unknowns of this mysterious dairy cattle affliction down in Texas. Class III and Cheese traded both sides of unchanged but failed to continue lower with most 2024 contracts finishing in positive territory on the day. Spot cheese mixed with block cheese moving 2 cents lower while barrels jumped 5.75 cents to put barrels 5 cents over blocks again.
Unfortunately there is no more clarity on the cattle illness this morning. While biosecurity gets ramped up on dairy farms, market participants wait eagerly for the next bit of news on this evolving issue. We think it is encouraging that we heard 20-25 farms were affected as of last Thursday and we haven't heard a bigger number yet despite 4 days passing. Maybe those involved are getting more tight lipped, or else it could signal that the spread has been relatively contained and is due to some local factor. That doesn’t make this any less troublesome for the producers directly dealing with the illness today. The bigger picture seems to be: market bears lean on the weaker demand story while market bulls are concerning themselves with supply side issues. Speaking of which, we’ll get the February Milk Production report at 2pm Central tomorrow.
After adjusting for the extra day in February, we expect U.S. headline milk production to be down 0.9% from last year. As-reported (with the extra day) it is forecast up 2.6% YoY for February. There is a strong seasonal tendency for the herd to expand in the first quarter, and with slaughter still running 8% or more below year ago, we expect the herd to expand between January and February, but it will still be down close to 1% YoY. Milk production per cow has been hovering around year-ago levels and February was probably similar. Farmers have been focused on boosting milk solids instead of boosting water production per cow. Combined fat+protein in the milk was up 1.4% from last year during February, so even if headline milk production is down 0.9%, component adjusted production would be up 0.4%.

A stable spot butter market caused a lower volume day on the exchange as futures buyers pushed futures higher taking whatever offers they could find with only 126 contracts trading. We’ve highlighted this before in which we typically see futures offers pull away when spot markets are stable/higher and will typically see more futures volume when spot is a few cents lower. Meaning that futures buyers are still looking for coverage, even at these elevated levels knowing that $3.00 is a potential risk this year once again.
Nonfat volume was also bleak yesterday with only 109 contracts trading even with spot making 6 months lows @ 114.500, breaking through lows made earlier in the month. Nearby futures were down over a penny in nearby months while the rest of the curve was slightly lower. Market participants were likely waiting for GDT this morning as NFDM volume has already surpassed yesterdays levels and trading more than 2 cents lower in deferred months. The GDT event is still ongoing but will likely finish lower. EEX SMP prices were trading lower heading into the GDT event and will likely continue to feel pressure as they continue to create contract lows.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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