CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - November 19, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class IV, Butter and NFDM all have expanded limits today.
Class III and Cheese futures put in a bottom Friday as new lows were made and roundly rejected on strong volume (over 3,000 Class III futures Friday). Class III and Cheese futures trading volume and open interest fell yesterday (1,977 Class III, 530 Cheese) as prices continued higher. While $1.70 cheese is hardly a “bear market”, the futures market trend the past month was unequivocally bearish. And bearish trends can have “bear bounces”, which is what appears to be underway for Class III/Cheese over the past two trading sessions.
They tend to be swift and significant. December Class III futures, for example, has gained $1.42/cwt since Friday morning (for reference, it took the market 10 trading days to lose the last $1.42). Spot stability around $1.70 and really some firming price action yesterday helped spur futures higher. But also the futures market is focused on the news to come this week starting with the GDT auction underway presently.
SGX futures are pointing toward a higher trade for the GDT index and we’re expecting a 3.4% jump. The recent pulse auction showed increased WMP and SMP prices so there is a good chance that we will see prices continue to climb. The NZ pasture growth index has been supportive recently holding above both last season and the 5-year average for the last several months.
Tomorrow we’ll get the much anticipated October Milk Production report. We’re expecting milk production will fall back below year ago due to bird flu in California. Milk production in the U.S. has been improving, from -1.7% in June to +0.4% in August. But bird flu showed up in California, which accounts for about 18% of U.S. milk production in late August and weak production in September pulled headline growth down to just +0.1% in September. With bird flu impact in California worsening through October, we should see California down 3% or more, which is going to make it hard to post any growth at the national level.
There were a lot of anecdotal comments about strong components in October, especially fat. Milk pooled on the Federal Milk Marketing Orders during October had a weighted average fat content of 4.22%. That was up 1.2% from last year, which is weaker growth than the +1.9% we saw in September and +2.6% in August. The weakness was broad based with growth slowing in most Federal Orders and California and the PNW were both below last year in October.
Protein content was 3.33%, which was right at forecast. That was up 0.8% from last year and is slower than the +0.9% we saw in September and +1.5% in August. Like with fat, protein content was down from last year in California and the PNW orders.
Meanwhile, Class IV Milk futures were steady/mixed yesterday and butter futures moved lower and NFDM moved higher. Spot butter has some buy side interest but it seems clear that sellers are ready, willing and able to continue on the path of plunking bids in this market. Prices spent about 8 weeks between $2.50 and $2.65 this time last year so there is some trading congestion and perhaps support at the $2.50 level, but cream remains widely available as seasonal sales are expected to slow. The January to December price average closed just below $280.000 yesterday, which largely remains a budget-level for buy side hedgers and may be a sticking point for now give or take a few pennies.
NFDM loves $140.000. Spot finished unchanged at $140.000 on 1 trade and futures fell in line. January thru December 2025 finished at $139.950. The market is finding solace in not deviating from the current price level as comments around immediate demand remain subdued. Between milk production concerns in California, which are on-going presently, and the fact that California plants produced 50% of our NFDM/SMP in 2023, NFDM has likely priced in much of the supply side of the equation (or tried to). The other side of the story – the story that has not yet developed – is any increase in demand as trading partners work through the last of their less expensive powder inventory.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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