CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - October 22, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Yesterday’s much anticipated September Milk Production report pinched a nerve as headline milk production for September was up 0.1% from last year, which was the first time we’ve had a positive YoY number all year. It was also stronger than the –0.3% forecast, which sets component adjusted production up 1.6% vs our forecast of 1.2%. The USDA also revised up August from –0.1% to +0.4% (mostly driven by an upward revision to cow numbers). We have been watching two states closely, Wisconsin and California. Wisconsin has been weak these last few months but the USDA revised up the August number and September came in better than we were expecting, down just 0.5%.
The knee-jerk reaction was to sell futures – at least Class III and Cheese. Nearby Class III and Cheese are opened lower – in line with post-report trade – last night and remain under some pressure this morning. This selling has eradicated any nearby futures premium to spot. But that’s about it. Now the onus will be on spot cheese price action should there be substantially more weakness. Perhaps there will be a new wave of selling interest on spot, but this morning we don’t expect that. The spot market has already adjusted from the mid-September high price prints well over $2.00 and now we have developed a two-sided trade. Product is clearing around current levels and we’d suggest that ought to be the course of things today. In fact, anecdotal comments point to improving demand for cheese since last week and global prices have made sourcing US cheese a viable option.
Meanwhile, spot butter gained 7 cents yesterday amid lighter volume. There seems to be a clearing from the onslaught of butter on offer during the spot call. Maybe sellers took a day off or maybe we’re in the midst of a more material recovery bounce. We think the latter as spot remains nicely discounted to nearby futures. And nearby futures caught a bid yesterday (in fact all of 2025 saw good buying). Futures prices were unchanged to about 2 cents higher on good volume (356) and rising open interest (+233). Despite the recent decline in spot butter, end-users have not forgotten the brow sweat that comes with $3.00+ prices and they have their 2025 marching orders. Bigger-picture however is that we do expect some spot/futures convergence somewhere south of $3.00 at this time.
GDT Pulse prices were relatively strong this morning with regular WMP up 1.0% from the GDT event last week and SMP at $2,805 ($1.27/lb), up 2.0% from last week. However, CME NFDM futures have turned sharply lower this morning (roughly 1-2 through Q1-25) given the better than expected milk production report and better production than expected in California. It’s likely that California production will stay weaker through October/November given the reported cases but production on a national level is less of a worry at the moment. Anecdotally, Mexican demand has slowed a bit this month and with domestic consumption weaker the last couple months, NFDM prices could remove some premium it has to the international market.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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