CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - October 24, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese futures closed mostly in positive territory Wednesday for the first time all week. Market bears are still lingering as nearby futures prices finished well off their highs and trading volume picked up some steam. Over 2,500 Class III and Nearly 700 Cheese futures changed hands with rising open interest (except for November Class III) as the adjustment lower to futures has enticed some new buy side interest.
There are perceptions and there are realities. And often perceptions ARE the reality for any individual market participant. In the interest of brevity, the spot cheese price average (block/barrel average) has traded more or less 5 cents either side of $1.90 for several weeks (we have a lot of market memory around this level having spent the lion’s share of May, June and July at about the same price level). But Monday’s heavier-than-expected September Milk Production report back-lit Tuesday’s spot cheese market weakness leading many to think the price is vulnerable to more downside. The Milk Production report emboldened this bearish perception of the market.
But the cheese market is just not that bearish. Yes prices have fallen significantly from the early September high price level and demand may not be wildly bullish. But now that the market has adjusted from the lofty mid-$2.00 range, it appears the US spot cheese market is more than contented to clear product around the $1.90 level waiting for a need to develop (the need to turn cheese into cash more aggressively OR the need to buy that last load).
Lighter inventories don’t get corrected overnight and anecdotal conversations point to improved demand in just the last week or so. While this make some sense seasonally for domestic buyers, several of those comments point to improved export demand. The US cheese market is not highly competitive on the world stage, which coupled with seasonality ought to offer some underpinning support to prices over the next few weeks.
Butter buyers took Wednesday off, which sponsored a 2.25 cent drop for the cash price. Still above the recent low of $2.61, the market is seeking some level of equilibrium. After the burst of trading earlier this month, air pockets exist in the market and wider spot swings are expected until we get to a place buyers and sellers come together again. Ultimately, the market feels heavy and futures prices are back near recent lows now after bouncing late last week. As the carry develops in this market, spot buyers may be more enticed to step up again with willing bids. In the meantime, conversations of ample cream supplies and light demand persist. While we don’t export the same types of butter volume that we do cheese or NFDM, US butter prices could drive a bump in exports here as well.
The NFDM market remains remarkably stable but well-supported this week as 11 spot loads traded Wednesday at $1.3600 – unchanged from Tuesday. Futures volumes tapered off with a mixed/mostly higher trade of 153 contracts trading. We expect a mixed trade to start today as the risks to the upside are apparent to the market – but not really in play at the moment. California remains in the throws of the Bird Flu epidemic, which is knocking down milk production daily. While it hasn’t stirred the markets (especially NFDM where ~50% of US NFDM/SMP is produced) into a frenzy, it is likely an underpinning feature to the market. Soft or spotty demand continues to be a formidable headwind.
GDT Pulse was relatively strong with regular WMP at $3,535, up 1.0% from the Event last week and SMP at $2,805 ($1.27/lb.), up 2.0% from last week.
The USDA will release the September Cold Storge report on Friday. I think cheese stocks probably improved slightly from -6.4% in August to -5.0% in September while butter stocks stay heavy at +10.9% YoY in September compared to +10.8% in August.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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