
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Bearish is probably too strong a word to describe the August 2024 Milk Production numbers, but production, cow numbers and milk per cow were all slightly better than our forecast. Headline U.S. milk production was down 0.1% from last year in August, which was slightly better than the -0.2% forecast. The number of dairy cows was steady between July and August, which was a hair higher than expected. Milk production per cow was up 0.4% from last year, which was stronger than the +0.2% forecast.

The states that had bird flu early have fully recovered with production per cow back above year ago in TX, NM, MI and ID while PPC improved quite a bit in Colorado (that got hit hard with bird flu in June/July). However, bird flu started spreading in California during mid-late August, so the September milk production report could show some weakness again.
Our initial reaction was that the Milk Production report would have a minimal impact on US dairy markets. That said, Class III was lower overnight. It reminds us that in big bull markets, neutral information doesn’t cut it. The market weakness is likely more about follow-through selling from Friday in which 2,775 Class III contracts changed hands and open interest rose by 448 contracts. There’s been bouts of new selling over the past week and Friday was just another example of that.
Spot cheese was also on offer Friday with no trades and no bids. Futures, which are already willing to trade a discount to spot, extended those discounts Friday (and overnight) as skepticism of spot strength continuing is running rampant. These are some lofty spot prices and they’ve likely had some impact on the willingness of buyers to step into the ring. We don’t think demand is terrible even with high prices. We’ve likely lost export opportunities, but at this point we think US buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach rather than being able to step away from the market entirely.
After falling 16 cents from Monday thru Thursday, spot Butter got a reprieve from weakness Friday. Up a quarter penny to close at $297.250 and underpinning nearby Butter futures contracts Friday. There may be a continuation of that here early this week, but the main takeaway we have is that last week’s butter trade is weak and bearish price action. It signals to us that a bigger downward correction for butter is now likely underway.
It was a quiet end to the week for nonfat with only 43 contracts trading in futures slightly higher as the recovered some of Wednesday’s losses in nearby as teeter around contract highs. Q4 futures were mostly steady last week while Q1 futures lost some forward premium and were lower on the week. Spot nonfat, although steady, has seem good volume trading 15 loads on Thursday and 5 on Friday as offers have been met with willing buyers. Although there seems to be some more milk production on the horizon, short term fundamentals keep nonfat fairly underpinned.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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