CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - September 9, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Be careful around a market not doing what you think it should be doing. Class III and Cheese futures fell Friday despite newfound spot bidding, which narrowed the block/barrel spread to within a penny on the highs of the year. And there were 5 block loads that trades (2 barrels) suggesting there’s some willingness and ability to sell fresh loads at the exchange.
Given the large net long by large – and small – speculators (Managed = Large), we could chalk Friday’s futures action up to end-of-the-week profit taking. There was probably some of that going on. But there was also continued strong futures volume, strong options volume, and rising open interest in October and November Class III. And, if you recall, outside markets (grains, energies, metals, equities) were all sharply lower to close out the week. There is some new selling going on here too.
Anecdotally last week’s cheese trade was a bit of an enigma. We know fresh cheese inventories are tight – and there are host of reasons to be concerned about futures supplies of both fluid milk and fresh cheese (we just can’t make up lost ground on this year’s cheddar production overnight). But demand gets a say too. And in talking with the industry last week, it seems as though demand for cheese in the country was rather quiet. We believe demand remains on solid ground and so our assessment of the current dynamic is that by and large buyers are waiting in the weeds rather than chasing the market. Still, eventually spot strength will need to be respected by futures. In the meantime, it appears the futures market is expecting some bit of a stutter step to the spot strength this week.
Spot butter gained 1.25 cents on 6 trades Friday stemming Thursday’s weakness and causing a bit of a recovery bounce on Friday. While the recovery was sponsored by a firming spot market, we’d also point out that last week October butter – as well as other contracts – fell below their 20-day moving average. While this in and of itself is not necessarily bearish technical price action, we point it out because the 20-day moving average is more or less the “mean” short term. And if prices revert to the “mean”, well then that’s our explanation of Friday’s action. We expect some choppy trading for butter futures to start the week with the 20-moving average acting as a sticking point unless spot butter makes a more material move up or down.
New sellers rewarded the NFDM futures rally Friday as prices weakened, volume and open interest increased. Nearly 300 NFDM contracts changed hands as prices fell. Meanwhile spot made a new 2024 high price of $1.3650 on 9 trades. Despite the recent spot strength – and the bullish aspects of that move - the mid-$1.30s for spot appears to be an area of some congestion. Buyers are willing and able (evidenced by 8 bids left unfilled on the board) but the sell side still has some product to move here and they seem to be more willing to sell this price point. Expect a good two-sided spot trade for NFDM early this week and perhaps more corrective trading for futures.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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