
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

We would like to thank you for your readership and business in 2023 and look forward to providing what we think is unique market insights to you in 2024. We wish you a happy and safe New Year!
Barrel cheese weakness Thursday thwarted the slow, methodical uptick in Class III and Cheese futures prices we’ve seen this week (mainly nearby). The upward path we thought had least resistance yesterday failed to materialize. Q1 contracts gave up most of this week’s modest gains with January re-testing the low print of $15.38 established last week. January settled just above at $15.40 – still well above the $14.00 Class III price predicted by current spot. But we’re still in the pricing period and buyers are still actively seeking spot loads of cheese as the spot seller wrap-up end of quarter/end of year business. Barrel cheese fell 4 cents to 1.4300 on 14 trades with 19 bids left on the board and 4 offers. Block cheese ticked up 1.50 cents to 1.4300 on 6 trades with 3 bids and 1 offer left unfilled. Our comment from yesterday still stands: “Cheese buyers are not backing down. They don’t necessarily want higher prices – they seem to want to own product.”
While Cheese buyers are happy to own product around current levels, spot butter buyers are happy to – or needing to more likely – push the spot price higher this week. Up 11.75 cents since Tuesday (up a3.75 cents yesterday), spot butter is now back to within spitting distance of the December $2.6825 price higher set back at the beginning of the month. While cream is more available – party because of the time of year we’re in here – there seems to be no urgency by salted AA spot sellers here in Chicago. While that can change as we roll into the new year, we’re growing concerned that the price weakness in the near term may be behind us for a period of time. We’re not saying $3.00 butter is back in the offing but, given the wide trading ranges, $2.80 may be in play.
Spot NFDM continues to find comfort in the mid-high teens here with spot NFDM opening and closing unchanged at $1.1600 on zero trades (2 bids, 1 offer left on board). Futures chopped sideways near the low end of their recent trading ranges. That may be the big takeaway for NFDM at the end of the year here: futures are sideways 2-3 cents either side of $130.000 for 2024 calendar strip. Weaker demand and weaker global prices was the main story in 2023. Our concern going forward is the potential impacts of both weaker NFDM production recently and essentially flat milk production growth.
Next Tuesday we’ll usher in the first day of market trading for the New Year and the first GDT Auction of 2024. SGX futures have generally been too bullish relative to the actual prices. The GDT price index has fallen short of futures prices over the last three auctions. Currently futures are pricing in a 5.6% increase for the GDT index. The GDT pulse auction on Tuesday was up 0.8% for WMP and down 1.6% for SMP prices.
Weather conditions in New Zealand have been deteriorating recently as the country is enduring a very warm summer. El Nino effects can be plainly seen at this point as the pasture growth index has fallen rapidly and is not below last year’s levels and the 5-year average.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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