
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III and Cheese markets finished mixed with nearby contracts losing the most ground as the market consolidates the swift up and down price action this week. After a brief reprieve for spot trading Wednesday, the sell side became more apparent Thursday. Block cheese fell 1.25 cents while barrels trimmed 0.75 off the price on offers only – no trades. Despite the modest weakness yesterday, our read on the Cheese spot price this week is one of equilibrium rather than a set up for another swift price decline. In other words, the cash market is relatively stable for now around current levels and we expect that to continue today.
The Class III and Cheese futures aren’t arguing with the lackluster spot trade. Price action was mixed yesterday, but the bearish carry structure is re-emerging as nearby contracts continue to show the most weakness; closing lower the past three days. No doubt the trade is concerned about what the second half of the year will look like and reasonably willing to keep risk premium out there for now. All of that said, futures contracts – even nearby contracts – have show us over the past few weeks that they are willing to go higher. The downtrend seen from October to January appears to be over now and despite recent weakness, our expectation that volatile markets lay out ahead of us is still intact. In fact, today may be a pivotal day in that a 3 day downward market corrections – as nearby contracts have seen this week – are rather common after explosive rallies.
Spot butter has straight in a roughly 6-7 cent range over the last two weeks and fell 2.5 cents with no trades to the lows we saw last week @ 2.7450. Sell side pressure on spot induced more liquidity on futures as it gave way to some selling on futures as prices fell slightly through the first half of the year with futures volume doubling to 330 contracts. If the sellside liquidity is there, buyers are still very much eager to buy. Butter production has stayed relatively flat while domestic disappearance continues to come in strong. Globally the demand has been just as strong as China and Saudi Arabia posted strong numbers for 2023. We could see those numbers pull back in 2023 but the amount available to export this is also expected to drop.
Nonfat fell 1.75 cents on 3 trades and has fallen 3.75 cents over the last 2 sessions as it met resistance for the highs seen in late October. Global prices still remain steady after Tuesday’s GDT results. US NFDM exports were stronger than expected for December while stocks posted a 20% drop. We aren’t in a heavy supply situation but concerns still loom about demand short term.
The USDA is reporting that there is some sentiment from the Upper-Midwest region that milk production will be less in 2024 than in 2023. I think that we will end up seeing stronger milk production in the U.S. but it is interesting to hear that there is some expectation in the market of a declining milk supply this year. This sentiment along with supportive processing levels is being balanced against expectations of spring flush and improved weather conditions, leading to spot milk prices staying flat from last week at an average price per load at $0.50 over Class III.

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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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