CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - October 12, 2023
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Dairy markets were mostly mixed Wednesday amid stable to higher spot prices. NFDM and Class IV both posted widespread price gains as the cash price of NFDM gained 3.00 cents on 8 trades to close at $1.2150 - the highest price since the last week of February. NFDM futures volume surged more than doubling from Tuesday (366 yesterday vs. 146 Tuesday) as prices pushed higher through December 2024 (new contract highs made in 2H 2024). NFDM options action also surged with over 1,200 NFDM options trading (the busiest option trade this month so far).
The past few weeks have seen NFDM futures trading rather sideways following the bottom established back in early September. For many nearby contracts, yesterday’s price action meant busting out of that sideways consolidation to a new, higher level. Amid tighter stocks, modest reports of increased demand in the past month or so, a continually firm (though not red hot) global trade, and flat milk production here in the US, the underpinning support to the market appears to fit with a burgeoning bullish narrative. In many ways, however, the support seems less about broadly bullish sentiment and more about a growing eagerness by end-users to own price.
Spot butter sat steady again yesterday leading to a mixed close on futures. Nearby futures remain at a safe distance from spot but finished firm yesterday while good sell side action developed in 2024 – mainly out in the 2nd half. The calendar strip closed at $250.650 (down nearly 2 cents from Tuesday), which is a big round fat number for long-term hedgers to begin hacking away at long-term price needs. There is a perceptible belief that spot pricing is vulnerable to a swift downturn. Seasonally it makes sense. What we can tell you is that the forward curve is discounted to correct the problem. Spot is most expensive on the board today to disincentivize putting up inventory. Bring your salted butter to Chicago and sell it. We shall see.
Bullish butter and growing bullish price action on NFDM are lost on Class III and Cheese. Both markets closed lower in 2023 contracts yesterday despite another rise in the price of barrel cheese. Part of that is due to the ‘reasonable’ carry already established in the futures forward curve. And part it is a skepticism around the stable block price here. If we had a dollar for all the people in the industry who cannot see a reason for the price of block cheese to move higher today, we’d have enough money to go build a dairy. We get it – demand is stable but also rather quiet for the season. Few buyers are worried or have to stretch to get something bought here at the exchange – especially with some anecdotal reports of some loads transacting in the $1.60s. We won’t overthink it at this time. The market has been remarkably stable lately after 4-5 weeks of weakness. We have a market clearing price now and we wait for the next seasonal shoe to drop.
Grains are mixed overnight as traders position themselves for the USDA WASDE report released this morning at 11am Central. The corn market remains remarkably stable, more or less chopping sideways for weeks now. Supply/demand appears to be in balance but the mindset remains one of weaker price outlook fundamentally. Our lead grain economist, Arlan Suderman, wrote yesterday: “our customer survey currently shows production of 15.282 billion bushels on a yield of 175.5 bushels per acre. Add in the 1.361 billion bushels that USDA says we started with at the beginning of the marketing year, and 25 million bushels of imports, and you get a supply of 16.669 billion bushels, the third largest on record.” Good perspective to keep.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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