
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
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By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Trading volumes surged along with price Tuesday for both Class III and Cheese futures as the trade took a “shoot-first, ask questions later” tone. And open interest fell by 185 contracts for November, which suggest that short covering was responsible for the intraday 60 cent rally on that contract. Action appeared to be driven by a quarter cent bump in the block and barrel markets yesterday following the 3.5 cent increase for spot Dry Whey. We could throw the 4.3% increase in GDT Index for good psychological measure, but cheddar was the single product that showed price weakness during the event and, frankly, the US markets seemed to ignore the strength otherwise.
Nevertheless, nearby Class III and Cheese contracts have been treading water for weeks now. Spot prices are stable and buyers appear to want to own cheese around current levels – rather than needing or wanting to push the price up. If you’re a speculator short futures, your unrealized profit hasn’t been going up in days. At some point they cut and run.
Next year is perhaps a slightly different story. This is where the budget setting hedgers reside. End-user buying has picked up the pace for both Class III and Cheese contracts lately despite what happens to spot cheese. The January to December Cheese price average finished at $1.8940 yesterday. We expect good trading around the $1.90 mark as the market looks content to keep a healthy carry premium in the storyline for now. We get the September Milk Production report out tomorrow afternoon. We’re calling it flat vs. last year, but any shortfall from there will likely further support 2024 contracts.
Spot Butter is shedding some light on the idea that a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. We don’t want to make light of the situation, but history would suggest a swift collapse of price following the surge to over $3.50 in early October. That hasn’t happened and for now butter looks like it has some staying power here. Despite that reality, sells side paper continues to weight on 2024 contracts. January to December butter finished at $248.675 yesterday – down 0.225 from Monday’s close. And trading volume was good yesterday with 377 contracts changing hands and open interest increasing by 157 contracts.
NFDM futures shrugged off the increase in GDT yesterday closing mostly lower on good volume (368 contracts and OI up 199). Much of the trading focused in the 2024 contracts. We’ve remarked on a general lack of sell side liquidity over the past month or so. But prices have move higher – in many cases on order flow alone (not some breaking bullish news) – and the $135.000 calendar strip average appear to be enticing some new selling. We expect more of a mixed trading for NFDM today.

A couple weeks ago we wrote about the reduced flow of cargo trucks at major bridges at the US/Mexico border in El Paso, Texas. It was beginning to become an issue for Mexican powder importers. This was primarily due to the fact that the US moved customs agents to immigrant duty which slowed down traffic flow as well as some bridges being closed to commercial traffic. Those have recently reopened and is easing the slowdowns.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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