CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - October 2, 2023
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese futures closed mixed Friday with nearby contracts bouncing and more deferred 2024 contracts falling. Spot cheese stabilized Friday with barrels gaining a penny to close at $1.4800 on 4 trades. Blocks opened and closed unchanged at $1.7200. The barrel market bounced on the prior Friday too as end of the week buy side interest perks up in a falling market. Broadly speaking, however, the storyline to end Q3 was one of rather quiet fresh cheese demand. Pressure on the cheese market during September likely came from lack of exports back in August and a lack of worry from domestic buyers in September. While end-users have likely put up a good deal of cheese this year, seasonally demand ought to improve over the next 30-45 days.
Class III and Cheese trade volumes were moderate Friday with over 1,600 Class III and 638 Cheese contracts changing hands amid rising open interest (+225 Class III, +45 Cheese). Directionally, however, nearby contracts for both remain technically bearish (down) though some ‘oversold’ technical conditions developed in earnest last week. While we can’t argue with the tape – cheese prices did fall materially in September – we question sell side liquidity on both cheese and nearby futures contracts heading into a new quarter. History doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, but if you remember selling dried up fairly quickly in early July when from Q2 into Q3 this year. Even if that doesn’t happen, we do expect buyers to become more aggressive given the rather quick price adjustment this time of year.
After printing an all-time record high price of $3.3350 last Thursday, Spot butter fell 3.5 cents on a single trade Friday. Is this the chink in the armor of the butter bull rally? We don’t know. Seasonally prices could remain aloft here for a few more weeks regardless if that number is $3.30 or $3.10. Futures would have you believe the latter having sold off the past few days (particularly November on back). In fact, of the 320 trades for butter Friday, 173 came in the October contract alone as open interest continued to rise there. No doubt the big part of the move has likely happened and now the market may want to find a place to stablize price action and determine who has and who needs what. After a bid move like butter has seen, however, sharp declines are highly possible.
NFDM has by and large stood idely by watching new lows for Class III/Cheese and new highs for Butter. Spot NFDM is quietly rising – with a new 4-month high price to close out the week and the quarter – but futures were more sideways directionally the last week or so. While sell side liquidity in derivative markets (both here and EU) are rather light, buyer worry is also in somewhat short-supply. We’ve worked down inventories of NFDM, but there doesn’t seem to be a clear path higher presently. So the futures chop – having bottomed last month – and wait on fresh news.
We may get that news tomorrow with the GDT auction event. SGX futures have been over estimating GDT results for the last few events. Currently, futures are pricing in a roughly 6% increase for the GDT index. Weather conditions in New Zealand have deteriorated a bit with the pasture growth index (30-day rolling basis) dipping below year ago in late September. We could still see some mildly positve YoY gains for Sep/Oct, but it looks like the dairy cow herd is down 1% or more which will help to pull production down this season. China is celebrating their Golden Week holiday next week. It will be interesting to see what North Asia participation looks like.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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