Precious Metals 101626; Gold liquidity assessment
How gold compares with other assets plus a review of gold liquidity in its own right; and a nod to the Official Sector
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
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StoneX TV: The Hidden Copper Hoard in U.S. Sheds Is Rewiring LME Trade
The copper market outlook hinges on U.S. tariffs, with the CME to LME arbitrage pricing in less than the 15% refined copper tariff on the table. Natalie Scott-Gray, StoneX Senior Metals Analyst EMEA and Asia, hosts Giles Plumb, Head of Base Metal Trading, Philip Meijer, Options Sales Trade, Michael Price, Senior Base Metal Sales, and Michael Cuoco, Head of Fund Sales, Metals and Bulks, on why copper is breaking away from the base metals complex. Record options volumes and U.S. critical mineral status are drawing new money into copper, while AI data centers add demand through power, cooling and grid build out. A strong dollar weighs on aluminum and zinc as producers hedge out to late 2027.
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Dollar Index Pullback From Resistance Hands Gold and Silver a Lifeline
A pullback in the U.S. dollar index from an eight-month resistance line is giving gold and silver a firmer macro footing. Bearish momentum signals on the dollar and lower U.S. Treasury yields are reinforcing the precious metals rebound from the July lows.
Razan Hilal
- Precious Metals
Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 16
October 16 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open, keeping theme with the choppy week of trade seen thus far as the broader equity sector pushes mostly higher but with a notable shuffling of money flow out of tech and into other areas. The VIX is off notably to start the day, hovering back around 16 after pushing to a fresh one-month high above 18 yesterday. The dollar is adding to yesterday’s losses, down 0.2% at the time of writing to trade near 101.8 after touching a two-week low overnight. Treasury yields are modestly higher this morning, with 2-year yields near 4.76%, 10-year yields at 5.11%, and 30-year yields just above 5.44%. Crude oil is looking to end a strong week on a weak note, with nearby WTI off 1.6% to hang near $96 after posting a fresh four-week high yesterday, while nearby Brent is near unchanged around $105.9 at the time of writing. The ags are off to a mostly lower start, though it will be interesting to see if this morning’s export data that we’ll touch on below brings any strength on the open.
Mike Castle
- Grains & Oilseeds
- Energy
- Dairy
- Renewable Fuels
- Cocoa
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Sugar
- Meats & Livestock
- Forest Products
Dollar Strength Pins Down Aluminum and Zinc While Copper Breaks Away
An inflation shock that reversed Western rate cuts has handed the dollar the upper hand over aluminum and zinc. Copper is the outlier, and a dollar reversal is the risk that could reset the whole base metals complex.
Natalie Scott-Gray
- Base Metals
Cotton Gains Ground on Polyester as Crude Oil Lifts Synthetic Costs
Higher crude oil prices are lifting polyester costs and handing cotton a demand edge in textile mills. The same geopolitical premium behind that shift is also the part of the cotton rally most exposed to a reversal.
Editorial Team
- Cotton
Australia's Sentiment Surveys Show the Lagged Toll of Three RBA Hikes
Australian business and consumer sentiment surveys are only now capturing the Reserve Bank of Australia's first three rate hikes. With unemployment at a five-year high, firms and households are signaling growing strain from tightening already in the system.
Matt Simpson
- Currencies
East Coast Container Rates Near Covid Peak as Panama Surcharges Mount
U.S. East Coast container rates are running far above pre-Hormuz levels as Panama Canal surcharges and global disruptions stack up. Shorter transit times keep West Coast rates lower, but canal relief alone is not bringing East Coast costs down.
Editorial Team
- Energy
AI Bubble Valuations Meet Their Missing Trigger in the Bond Market
AI stock valuations have looked stretched for a long time, yet stretched valuations alone rarely end a bubble. The real trigger is an alternative home for investor capital, and rising Treasury yields and a Federal Reserve still leaning toward hikes are where that alternative takes shape.
James Stanley
- Equities
Strait of Hormuz Safe Passage Becomes Make-or-Break U.S.-Iran Issue
Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz sits at the heart of any U.S.-Iran deal, and without it, oil flows through the strait have kept swinging between near prewar levels and sharp drops. Lost Iranian crude revenue and the approaching U.S. midterms are adding pressure on both sides to close the gap.
Alex Hodes
- Energy
Tech Credit Strain Exposes the Financing Problem Behind the AI Boom
The AI selloff is spreading beyond stocks as the cost of insuring U.S. tech companies against default climbs. Higher interest rates are raising the price of financing the AI buildout just as investors question the payoff.
Fawad Razaqzada
- Equities
Behind China's Two-Speed Economy, a Ceiling on Agricultural Demand
China's growing exports and advanced manufacturing sit alongside weak property, investment and consumer spending, and the split is reshaping commodity demand. Industrial metals draw support from the stronger side, while cautious consumers limit growth in restaurant spending and premium meat.
Editorial Team
- Grains & Oilseeds
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